Poll shows Mamdani overtaking Cuomo in NYC’s ranked choice primary

Zohran Mamdani, a progressive candidate, has surged ahead of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the city’s Democratic primary for mayor, according to a recent poll. In the initial round of voting, Cuomo maintains a slight lead with 35% support, followed closely by Mamdani at 32% and Brad Lander at 13%. Other candidates, including Adrienne Adams and Scott Stringer, trail behind in the poll.

With no candidate securing over 50% of the vote, the ranked choice system comes into play. Mamdani overtakes Cuomo in the eighth round of simulated ranked choice voting, leading with 51.8% to 48.2%. Mamdani’s support has seen a significant increase from 1% to 32% over five months, while Cuomo’s numbers have remained relatively stable.

The poll indicates that Mamdani’s surge can be attributed to the support he gained from Brad Lander’s voters, who switched their preference to Mamdani in the later rounds of ranked choice voting. Lander had endorsed Mamdani as his preferred candidate in case he is eliminated.

There are differences in support for the candidates based on age and race. Mamdani leads among voters under 50, white voters, and Asian voters, while Cuomo has the support of voters over 50, Black voters, and Hispanic voters. The poll also reveals that Mamdani is favored among college-educated voters, while Cuomo leads among those without a four-year degree.

The Emerson College poll, which surveyed 729 likely Democratic voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. The race for the Democratic mayoral nomination remains competitive and unpredictable.

Previous polls show varying results, with Mamdani gaining ground on Cuomo. The final outcome will depend on voter turnout and preferences on election day.