President Donald Trump recently made comments about potential candidates to replace Jerome Powell as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, which has sparked a wave of speculation on prediction markets. Among the contenders mentioned were National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
In a recent interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Trump spoke highly of Hassett and Warsh, while also revealing that Bessent has taken himself out of contention for the position. Trump praised Warsh, stating, “He’s very good. Sometimes they’re all very good, until you put them in there, and then they don’t do so good. But … I think he’s a very good guy. I’d say Kevin and Kevin, both Kevins are very good.”
Following Trump’s comments, prediction market Kalshi quickly adjusted the odds for potential candidates. Hassett and Warsh were given a 35% chance each of being named the next Fed chair, while Waller, who was not mentioned by Trump, has a 15% probability. Both Hassett and Warsh have advocated for lower interest rates, in contrast to Powell, who has faced criticism from Trump for keeping rates elevated.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s resignation, announced last week, was described by Trump as a “pleasant surprise.” This move allows Trump to appoint a new member to the Fed Board of Governors, potentially paving the way for a new chair when Powell’s term ends in May 2026.
On Kalshi, Judy Shelton, former economic advisor to Trump, was given a 6% chance of being Powell’s replacement, while David Malpass, a former government official who led the World Bank Group, has a 4% probability. Surprisingly, Trump himself received a 1% vote to lead the Fed on the prediction market.
These developments in the search for the next Fed chair are closely watched by investors and economists, as the choice will have significant implications for monetary policy and the economy. Stay tuned for further updates on this evolving story.
