Australia’s coal mining industry continues to play a crucial role in the country’s economy, with thermal coal making up over 60% of total production and metallurgical coal comprising the rest. In 2025, total coal production remained relatively stable at 65.3 million tonnes, with slight growth compared to the previous year. This was supported by the ongoing ramp-up of the Olive Downs Complex and planned increases in production at various mines.
However, challenges such as operational constraints at the Ulan coal underground mine and a temporary halt in operations at the Moranbah North mine due to a fire in March 2025, offset some of these gains. Looking ahead to 2026, coal production is expected to rise by 3.9% to 483.2 million tonnes, driven by operational advancements at projects like the Maxwell underground mine and increased capacity at mines such as Byerwen and Narrabri.
Despite these positive developments, Australia’s coal production is projected to decline over the forecast period from 2026 to 2035. Output is anticipated to decrease at a compound annual growth rate of 0.8%, dropping to 448.7 million tonnes by 2035. This downward trend is influenced by a combination of supply-side and demand-side factors, including the closure of key mines and a shift towards renewable energy and natural gas in major coal-consuming markets like the US and China.
On the regulatory front, the mining sector in Australia is undergoing significant changes in response to growing environmental concerns and a focus on sustainability. Stricter regulations, such as the Environment Protection Reform Act 2025, are leading to increased scrutiny, compliance costs, and longer project development timelines for coal mining ventures. While these regulations aim to improve transparency and long-term investment certainty, they may pose short-term challenges for the expansion of the coal sector.
As the global demand for thermal coal weakens and the industry faces regulatory changes, the future of Australia’s coal mining industry remains uncertain. Adapting to these evolving dynamics will be crucial for the sector to navigate the challenges ahead and ensure its long-term sustainability.
