Donald Trump is navigating a significant challenge this midterm election season, largely of his own creation.
The president has dedicated considerable time and funds to support Sen. Darline Graham against Rep. Ralph Norman in the upcoming GOP Senate primary. His efforts for Graham surpass those he has made for other Republicans in key battlegrounds whose outcomes will influence congressional control. Trump not only encouraged her candidacy, but also organized a rare rally and utilized his MAGA Inc. resources in the campaign’s final stages.
A loss for Graham after such support would mark Trump’s most humiliating defeat this cycle, while a victory would showcase his influence in elevating new political figures.
“If Darline does come up short, it would be just a massive, massive embarrassment to the White House and to the president. Just an utter rejection,” remarked Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist and former official in Trump’s State Department.
The runoff to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on November’s ballot will not significantly alter Washington’s power dynamics. However, it will gauge Trump’s sway, given the personal political capital he has invested to promote an unfamiliar candidate to voters.
“The fact that he came to the state on short notice to do a rally, and we haven’t seen that in a lot of endorsements, I think that sends a very strong message that he’s all in,” said Andrew Boucher, a GOP strategist and leader of South Carolina’s Charleston County Republican Party, maintaining neutrality in the race.
Trump has positioned this race as a reflection of his own standing. During a rally with Graham in Myrtle Beach, he urged voters to “pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot.”
According to a Federal Election Commission report released on Monday, Trump’s super PAC spent $827,000 on outreach efforts for Graham. This constitutes one of the largest investments this cycle from MAGA Inc., with battleground Republicans eagerly awaiting similar support.
A national Republican operative, speaking anonymously about Trump’s impact, noted, “She wouldn’t even be in this place if she didn’t have [his support]. The outside help she’s had has kind of made this competitive.”
Prior to being appointed by Gov. Henry McMaster to complete her late brother’s term, Graham was inexperienced in politics. Her background includes work with the South Carolina Vocational Rehabilitation Department and leadership of the Commission for the Blind since 2019, but she had not pursued public office. Her opponents have highlighted this lack of experience, especially after a foreign policy misstep during a debate. Her political ties are primarily through her late brother.
Trump’s previous errors in South Carolina cast a shadow over this race. The primary echoes a recent governor’s contest where Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette lost to Attorney General Alan Wilson. As polls showed Evette lagging, Trump issued a rare dual endorsement to include Wilson.
Evette’s loss, combined with several unexpected defeats for Trump-endorsed candidates in other states, has heightened focus on Graham.
Trump’s confidence in his endorsements remains strong, as he posted on Truth Social, showcasing charts of his victories versus losses. However, he acknowledged that his influence has limits, noting some losses were due to loyalty.
A White House spokesperson highlighted Trump’s rally comments, where he admitted encouraging Graham to enter the primary, praising her understanding of politics and dedication to the military.
Graham’s debate misstep on national security has been a challenge, with Norman exploiting her inexperience. In the final campaign phase, Graham has aligned herself with Trump, emphasizing her conservative credentials. Meanwhile, Norman has solidified his base in the Upstate and sought support in the Low Country, with backing from former Gov. Mark Sanford. Norman has also criticized Graham on Fox News as an “unknown” candidate.
Graham aims to attract support from Rep. Russell Fry’s district following his endorsement. Her campaign ad accuses Norman of straying from Trump’s agenda, featuring rally footage with Trump.
The South Carolina GOP establishment has rallied behind Graham. Sen. Tim Scott endorsed her early, with Evette and McMaster following suit.
Graham’s campaign has spent over $1 million on ads, supported by three outside groups that previously backed her brother, totaling over $6 million in spending. In contrast, Norman has received support from Nikki Haley and related groups, totaling over $700,000, including a $200,000 ad from her advocacy group, Stand for America.
“Sen. Scott engaging in the race, the congressional delegation, all these portions of it. Congressman Fry engaging in the race is a big deal. You could almost say that’s the opposite of what you had in the governor’s race,” commented a South Carolina-based Republican operative, speaking anonymously and remaining neutral.
Neither Graham nor Norman’s spokespeople responded to comments.
Despite her debate mistake, Graham has attempted to shift focus during interviews. At a press conference, she noted that in conversations across the state, no one mentioned Taiwan or national security.
The late August runoff could be unpredictable, as both candidates work to mobilize supporters. With summer ending and schools reopening, turnout may be low, potentially favoring Norman, who has a longstanding local presence.
“A lot of the candidates that have defeated Trump-endorsed folks across the map this cycle, they’re well-known entities,” observed the national GOP operative. “It’s hard to overcome some of the basics of politics, where name ID goes a long way. Familiarity with the candidate matters. Having a favorable view and someone who aligns with your values more matters, even if there’s a Trump endorsement.”
Samuel Benson contributed to this report.
