South Carolina Republicans test Trump's clout in race for Graham's seat

The contest to succeed Lindsey Graham has presented a fresh challenge to President Donald Trump’s influence, with some South Carolina Republicans questioning whether he will prevail.

Sen. Darline Graham, appointed last week to complete her late brother’s term, announced Monday her candidacy for a full term in his former seat. Her decision followed Trump’s endorsement, which could have discouraged potential opponents.

Nonetheless, several Republicans are pressing on, identifying an opportunity in running against a largely untested candidate. This determination suggests that opposing a Trump-endorsed candidate may not be as politically risky as it once was.

“Even those who weren’t fans of Senator [Lindsey] Graham or didn’t support him in the primary appreciated the appointment as a tribute to him,” said CJ Westfall, chair of the Dorchester County GOP. “But once the president endorsed her, 95 percent are wondering, ‘What are we doing? We don’t know her positions or beliefs.’”

“People initially pleased with the appointment are now questioning the endorsement,” Westfall added.

Rep. Russell Fry, known for his allegiance to Trump, announced earlier Monday his entry into the race. He joins Rep. Ralph Norman, who declared his candidacy over the weekend, and Mark Lynch, a self-funding businessman who previously lost to the former senator in the primary. Other Republicans considering a run include former Gov. Mark Sanford and Lt. Gov Pam Evette, who despite Trump’s endorsement, failed in her gubernatorial bid weeks ago.

While Trump’s endorsed candidates have generally succeeded in primaries, Evette’s recent defeat is not his only setback, as his choices were also unsuccessful in the Iowa and Georgia gubernatorial contests.

“I think people saw [Trump’s] endorsement of Pam Evette and her poor performance, and believe this race could be as unpredictable as the gubernatorial race was,” said a Republican operative uninvolved with the race, speaking anonymously.

The strength of Trump’s direct endorsement will be tested by Graham’s candidacy, but the MAGA movement remains dominant in South Carolina politics. All Republican candidates in the race are committed to supporting the president, competing to prove their allegiance to Trump’s agenda, a theme seen in GOP primaries nationwide this year.

Norman told reporters on Monday that Trump’s endorsement “helps a great deal.” “That’s why I asked him for it,” he said. “I’d rather have it, but it’s up to the people.”

In Fry’s launch video, he portrayed himself as a Trump-aligned “MAGA warrior,” including images of him smiling with the president.

Fry campaign spokesperson Luke Byars stated that Fry has “been honored to receive President Trump’s endorsement” in previous elections.

“Our focus for the next three weeks is to ensure South Carolina has a conservative fighter in the United States Senate who will advance the President’s agenda and deliver real results for South Carolina families,” Byars said.

Some Republicans attribute the open field to Graham’s lack of elected experience and the expectation she would only serve her brother’s remaining term.

“There’s a desire to avoid another intense Republican primary, especially after a contentious gubernatorial race,” said Joel Sawyer, a South Carolina GOP strategist uninvolved in the race. “But I don’t think that’s going to happen.”

Despite her lack of electoral experience, Trump’s endorsement lends Graham immediate credibility. However, her campaign announcement surprised many in the state.

Many viewed her appointment as a dignified gesture to the Graham family, with expectations she would serve as a caretaker until her brother’s term ended in January. Her candidacy for a full term surprised South Carolina party officials: Drew McKissick, chair of the South Carolina Republican Party, told POLITICO Friday he believed Graham told Gov. Henry McMaster she’d “accept the appointment to complete the term, not to run for it.”

A South Carolina GOP rule established earlier this year requires candidates to have voted in at least two of the last three statewide GOP primaries.According to FITSNews, Graham participated in the 2024 GOP runoff but not in the 2022 or 2024 GOP primaries. Graham’s eligibility depends on whether her recent runoff vote is considered a primary vote under the new rule. The Dorchester County Republican Party has requested a review of Graham’s eligibility by the state party’s rules committee.

McKissick, the state party chair, mentioned Monday he hadn’t reviewed the issue since the filing window doesn’t open until midday Tuesday, and no one had officially filed to run.

“I haven’t seen information from any candidates yet,” he told POLITICO. “But we will examine all candidates’ information and official voting records from the state election commission when available.”

A Graham campaign spokesperson said she meets the state GOP’s primary voting requirement to file as a Senate candidate and is “qualified to run because she has real experience leading.”

“As to why she is running, it’s quite simple: she is a strong conservative who wants to build upon her brother’s legacy. There were never any conversations surrounding her appointment that were contingent upon serving only the remainder of Senator Lindsey Graham’s term,” Abby Zilch, a spokesperson for Graham’s campaign, stated.

Trump’s endorsement has influenced many contested Republican primaries recently, helping his favored candidates win. However, in South Carolina, his record is less clear. After supporting Evette early in the gubernatorial race, only to see her falter in the runoff, Trump issued a last-minute dual-endorsement for Attorney General Alan Wilson as well, who ultimately defeated Evette by over 30 points.

“I think it’s a nice gesture,” said another GOP strategist of Trump’s endorsement, speaking anonymously. “But she has no record or inherent right to the seat just because her brother held it. This is for the South Carolina people to decide.”

On Capitol Hill, Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated he would not engage in the August 11 special election. Thune, who was close friends with Lindsey Graham, described his sister as a “strong candidate” but said, “I’ll let voters in South Carolina decide it.”

Other senators are taking sides. Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Rick Scott (R-Florida), strong supporters of the president, have endorsed Norman, defying Trump by backing one of the House’s most conservative members. Both Lee and Scott highlighted Norman’s support for the Save America Act, an election reform bill that has been a central focus for Trump recently. Norman also received endorsement from Turning Point Action.

Meanwhile, Norman, who chose not to seek another House term to run unsuccessfully for governor, suggested Fry’s candidacy could risk the Republican House majority. If Fry wins the special election for Graham’s seat, the state would need a special election to fill his House seat, potentially leaving it vacant for months.

“I respect Russell Fry and have enjoyed serving with him in the House, but the reality is, his candidacy could leave his seat vacant until May 18th,” Norman wrote Monday.

GOP Rep. Nancy Mace announced Monday she would not join the race.

The candidate filing window closes on July 28, with the election scheduled just two weeks later. This rapid timeline could benefit Graham: She can utilize her brother’s campaign resources, which secured a primary victory last month while other state races went to runoffs. Additionally, Lindsey Graham’s memorial services, planned for July 28 in Washington and July 29 in South Carolina, will further compress the campaign period.

“Though it’s a three-week campaign, it’s effectively two weeks after the funeral,” said Tyson Grinstead, an RNC committeeman and Richland County GOP chair. “There will be ads, but it will be challenging for voters to focus on campaign events and decisions until after the funeral.”

If no candidate secures 50% of the vote, a runoff election will occur in late August.

“We don’t always understand what’s happening in D.C.,” said Jeff Green, the GOP chair in Greenville County. “We try to trust the president’s decisions. Would I have chosen another Graham to replace Lindsey Graham? Probably not.”

“We don’t know her yet,” Green added. “But we’re open and trusting in what the president and his team are doing.”

Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.