South Carolina Republicans may find themselves witnessing a familiar scenario.
The special election for the Senate primary on Tuesday, following the sudden death of Sen. Lindsey Graham, mirrors the tumultuous governor’s primary from June. The race features a front-runner, endorsed by President Donald Trump, who faces significant challenges in unifying support. Additionally, the prospect of a runoff election poses a threat, potentially allowing another Republican to surge late in the race.
Darline Graham, aiming to complete a full term in place of her late brother, currently leads some public polls, outpacing GOP Reps. Russell Fry and Ralph Norman, as well as former Gov. Mark Sanford and businessman Mark Lynch.
The large number of candidates makes it improbable that any one contender will secure the majority required to avoid a contentious runoff. Although Trump has shown support through a few Truth Social posts and a tele-rally scheduled for Monday, he has not publicly announced any further plans to assist.
This scenario is particularly reminiscent for one South Carolina Republican: Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette had Trump’s endorsement in the GOP governor’s primary but lost to Alan Wilson in the runoff after Wilson gained traction and received a double endorsement from the president.
When asked if she wished Trump had done more to support her, Evette told POLITICO, “Obviously, yes. I do wish that, but you know, it didn’t happen that way.” She is undecided on whom to endorse in the Senate primary and is closely monitoring the situation.
“Run it back,” remarked one national GOP operative, speaking anonymously about the possibility of the South Carolina Senate primary echoing the governor’s race. “The long and short of it, [Graham’s] got a pretty low ceiling.”
This Senate election serves as yet another test of Trump’s sway over the Republican Party. It will demonstrate whether his endorsement alone can secure the nomination for his chosen candidate and how far he is willing to go to support candidates facing uncertain prospects.
This marks Graham’s first election, and the state is known for its intense GOP political contests. Many local Republican officials and strategists think Graham is well-positioned to win the initial round of voting. However, the candidate who takes second place will determine how much additional support Graham may need from Trump to prevail in a one-on-one race.
The White House did not respond to requests for comment.
Opinions differ among Republicans about whether Norman or Fry would present a greater obstacle to Graham in a runoff. Norman has a solid conservative base in the state, while Fry, elected to Congress in 2022, is viewed as a rising star who has caught Trump’s attention.
“If it’s Darline and Russell, it definitely has some flavors of the governor’s race,” stated Tyson Grinstead, an RNC committee member and chair of the Richland County GOP, who remains neutral in the Senate race. Both candidates maintain good relationships with Trump, who has shown he is open to endorsing multiple candidates in a runoff.
However, Grinstead noted there are key differences in the current situation.
The primary criticism of Evette’s campaign, as noted by South Carolina Republicans, was her focus on her connection to Trump rather than leading with policy issues.
“I think most of the criticism came because I got his endorsement, and everybody was fighting for his endorsement. That’s how I looked at it,” Evette said, deflecting the criticism. “In states like this that have these runoffs, where very few people come out, I think if you’re not tied into the establishment, it hurts you in some form of fashion.”
With Trump’s endorsement in hand, Graham is working to set herself apart from her competitors and her brother.
In a Fox News interview announcing her candidacy, Graham emphasized her plan to concentrate on domestic issues, contrasting with her late brother’s focus on foreign policy. She reiterated this approach during her first debate appearance last week.
“If anybody understands the struggles of South Carolinians, it’s me,” Graham said during the debate, addressing her own cost of living challenges while pledging support for Trump’s initiatives like the SAVE America Act.
“Our campaign proudly showcases the Trump endorsement, which remains a gold standard in Republican politics,” said a person familiar with Graham’s strategy, speaking anonymously.
“But Darline understands that an endorsement is just a starting point. She’s out there every day, making her case directly to voters because that’s what they deserve—a candidate who actively engages and doesn’t take victory for granted.”
Graham benefits from an experienced team and a strong campaign structure, assets developed over Lindsey Graham’s many successful campaigns in the state.
“Lindsey’s team has been the best in South Carolina,” Grinstead noted, having worked on previous campaigns for the late senator. “They’re organized, have a grassroots presence, and have field staff.”
Despite this, Graham is expected to face a challenging runoff, regardless of who finishes second. Fry and Norman are seen as the top contenders according to limited public polling. A straw poll by the South Carolina Republican Party showed Graham in third place, trailing Norman and Fry.
The two representatives present different options for Republican voters.
Fry is considered a rising figure in both Washington and Columbia, with Trump calling him “outstanding” and “very talented” shortly after Lindsey Graham’s death. However, if Fry wins the Senate seat, questions remain about the process for filling his congressional seat. The state party has indicated they would act promptly to maintain the House Republicans’ slim majority.
Norman, who previously vacated his House seat for a gubernatorial bid, is a prominent figure in South Carolina’s conservative circles and has sometimes opposed Trump, such as endorsing Nikki Haley for president in 2024. However, he is also a key figure in the Freedom Caucus and has a campaign network from his gubernatorial run that he can mobilize for the Senate race.
Graham, Fry, and Norman all declined to comment.
Graham’s main competitors have primarily targeted each other, suggesting the first round may be a contest for the second-place slot. Nonetheless, Graham’s camp has also launched attacks against Fry.
Security in Strength, a PAC that supported Lindsey Graham’s 2024 reelection, has aired an ad depicting Fry as a piece of meat in a frying pan, labeled “REJECTED” by Trump.
Recently, Fry has criticized Graham, alleging she increased the size and budget of a government agency without specifying which one. Graham has worked with the South Carolina Vocational Rehabilitation Department and has led the Commission for the Blind since 2019.
“If Russell Fry wants to challenge Senator Darline for aiding people with disabilities in finding jobs and achieving independence, that’s a bold stance to take,” Abby Zilch, a spokesperson for Graham, remarked in a social media post.
