The FT article titled “Fentanyl deaths are falling. What’s behind the decline?” delves into the recent decrease in fentanyl-related fatalities and explores potential reasons for this trend. While the subhead of the article suggests that changes in the drug supply are responsible for the decline, the evidence presented in the article does not definitively support this claim.
The article highlights a decrease in the quantity of drugs seized, which could indicate either a decrease in supply or demand. To accurately assess the situation, it is essential to consider changes in both price and quantity simultaneously. For instance, a rising price of fentanyl could deter users, while lower demand might lead to decreased prices.
A separate article from Minnesota sheds light on the pricing of fentanyl on the streets, indicating a significant drop in prices from $20 per pill a few years ago to $1-$2 per pill currently. This suggests that despite fluctuations in supply, the decrease in fentanyl-related deaths could be attributed to lower prices rather than reduced supply.
The FT article also mentions a compelling theory proposed by Nabarun Dasgupta and colleagues at the US academic collective Opioid Data Lab. They suggest that fentanyl may have already affected a significant portion of its susceptible population, leading to a decrease in overdose deaths. Some individuals may have adapted their usage to prevent overdosing, resulting in a decline in the fentanyl-naive drug-using population. This theory aligns with the observed east-west pattern of the decline in fentanyl deaths.
In conclusion, while the decline in fentanyl deaths is a positive development, the exact reasons behind this trend remain subject to speculation. Factors such as changes in supply, demand, pricing, and population susceptibility all play a role in shaping the current landscape of fentanyl use. Continued vigilance, education, and efforts to remove fentanyl from the streets are crucial in addressing the ongoing opioid crisis.
