The last time Democrats won like this was right before the 2018 blue wave

Democrats Experience a Rebirth in Recent Elections

For Democrats, the events of Tuesday night felt eerily reminiscent of 2017.

Across the nation, Democrats celebrated significant victories, not just in high-profile races but also in the less glamorous down-ballot contests. Counties that had swung rightward just a year ago found their way back to the left, and the suburbs—those vital areas that initially propelled Democratic successes during Trump’s first term—seemed to roar back to life. Exit polls indicated that Democrats had even improved their standing among non-college-educated voters.

The magnitude of these wins suggests a resurgent Democratic willingness to confront Trump as he wraps up his first year in office, particularly amid growing voter concerns about the cost of living.

In Virginia and New Jersey, Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill secured double-digit victories. Meanwhile, in Georgia, two Democrats managed to flip seats on the state’s Public Service Commission, marking the first non-federal statewide wins for the party in nearly two decades. Democrats also managed to flip two Republican-held state Senate seats in Mississippi, breaking the GOP supermajority in a state typically painted red. Additionally, a successful California ballot measure resulted in five more seats for the Democrats in the House, providing a counterweight to the GOP’s redistricting efforts in Texas.

This wave of victories infused new life into a beleaguered Democratic Party that had been cast into the political wilderness following Trump’s decisive win a year prior. Having been shut out of power in Washington, Democrats spent the past year introspecting and analyzing data, as their brand languished at historic lows.

However, signs of recovery began to emerge as they overperformed in special elections, hinting that the tide might be turning. In this, their first major electoral test of the second Trump era, Democrats didn’t just match the outcomes of eight years ago—heralding a blue wave in the 2018 midterms—they exceeded them in several key races.

“Virginians and voters made it abundantly clear that they’re frustrated with the Trump administration,” stated Christina Freundlich, a Democratic strategist involved in the Virginia lieutenant governor’s race. “Democrats mobilized in record numbers, and this signals what we can expect next year.”

Capitalizing on the traditional advantages of being the party out of power, Democrats successfully energized their base by opposing Trump’s second-term policies that have alarmed many liberals. The messaging from Spanberger and Sherrill, focusing on the stagnant economy and affordability crisis, proved effective in this crucial electoral test, yielding margins that took even seasoned Democrats by surprise.

“After devastating losses like in 2024 and 2016, it’s hard to trust polling… and your instincts about historical trends,” remarked Stephanie Schriock, a Democratic strategist and former leader of EMILY’s List, a progressive group dedicated to electing women. “Yet all the signs—internal polling, grassroots organizations, and grassroots movements like No Kings and Indivisible—indicated a strong energy was present.”

In Trump’s last midterm cycle in 2018, Democrats gained 40 House seats, with Spanberger and Sherrill being integral to that wave.

In Virginia, where odd-year state elections are often seen as indicators for upcoming midterms and presidential elections, Democrats flipped at least 13 seats in the House of Delegates. In the attorney general race, Democrat Jay Jones won by at least six points, exceeding expectations, despite his campaign facing controversies in its final days due to revelations of violent text messages. Nearly every county across the state shifted blue compared to former Vice President Kamala Harris’ performance in 2024.

Spanberger’s impressive victory stemmed from a familiar voter base: While she outperformed prior Democratic candidates across the board, her strongest gains were in suburban and exurban areas of Virginia, including Loudoun County—key regions that had previously backed Democrats during Trump’s first term but had leaned GOP during President Biden’s administration.

In Prince William County, a wealthy area outside Washington, Democrat Ralph Northam had a 23-point win in 2017; last year, Harris’ margin narrowed to under 18 points. Spanberger, however, won it by a staggering nearly 34 points.

Her strong performance in southeast Virginia may also provide optimism for Democrats eyeing potential flips of districts held by GOP Reps. Jen Kiggans and Rob Wittman next year, especially ahead of possible redistricting changes that could facilitate this effort.

“The underlying sentiments are strikingly similar,” observed Ian Russell, a Democratic strategist focused on House races, referencing the parallels to 2018. “We have a deeply unpopular president, the same one, and many Americans are increasingly anxious about critical issues like rising healthcare costs.”

In the prominent races—the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey, along with the New York mayoral race—Democrats all surpassed 50 percent support. The candidates represented a spectrum of the Democratic Party: from democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani to traditional moderates Spanberger and Sherrill. Republicans are already eager to paint Mamdani as a radical figure, attempting to link him to moderate Democrats nationwide.

Yet, Democrats contended that “the common thread in all these races was the focus on affordability,” explained David Hogg, a Democratic activist and co-founder of Leaders We Deserve, a group aimed at electing young leaders.

“Tomorrow, we can expect a slew of mischaracterizations and bad faith arguments suggesting that every policy Zohran ran on should apply universally across the country,” Hogg noted. “Even if policies aren’t easily translatable among states, the tactics of genuinely listening to voters and avoiding stale talking points are transferable.”

However, the Democrats still grapple with a tarnished image; according to NBC News’ exit poll, more voters in Virginia, New Jersey, and California hold unfavorable views of the Democratic Party than favorable ones. Nevertheless, the results from Tuesday’s elections may inject newfound energy and focus into a party that has lacked both for much of the past year.

Republicans, already facing the typical midterm challenges, cautioned that Tuesday’s results could signal serious difficulties ahead. This concern is amplified by the absence of Trump on the ballot; as one national Republican consultant remarked, “you bear all the burden without any of the advantages.”

Another GOP strategist, speaking anonymously to provide candid insights, expressed that the greatest challenge will be mobilizing low-propensity Trump voters next year. The most alarming takeaway for Republicans from Tuesday’s results was the Democrats’ success in flipping the two statewide seats in what had been a mundane Public Service Commission race in Georgia.

Next year’s Senate race in the state is poised to be among the most significant of the cycle, especially with Republicans aiming to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.

“The one thing that concerns me, aside from ensuring control of the House, is observing how Democrats managed to energize their base in these local Georgia elections,” the strategist concluded.