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American Focus > Blog > Environment > The Long History of Climate Models
Environment

The Long History of Climate Models

Last updated: March 12, 2025 1:28 pm
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The Long History of Climate Models
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However, it was a major step forward in predicting the weather with the help of computers. The success of this forecast laid the groundwork for the first climate models.  

One of the first comprehensive climate models was developed in the early 1960s by Syukuro Manabe and Richard Wetherald, two researchers at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey. Their model was one of the first to calculate the global energy balance of the Earth, taking into account the interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface. This groundbreaking work paved the way for future climate models that we use today.  

Since then, climate models have become increasingly sophisticated, incorporating more detailed physics, chemistry, and biology to better simulate the Earth’s climate system. Today, climate models are used by scientists around the world to study a wide range of climate-related phenomena, from sea level rise and extreme weather events to the impacts of human activities on the environment.  

Climate models have also played a crucial role in shaping climate policy and informing the public about the risks of climate change. By simulating different scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, climate scientists can help policymakers make informed decisions about how to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change.  

In conclusion, climate models are a powerful tool that has revolutionized our understanding of the Earth’s climate system. From their humble beginnings as weather prediction tools on early computers to the complex models used today, climate models continue to push the boundaries of scientific research and help us navigate the challenges of a changing climate. Stay tuned for the next blog in this series, where we will delve deeper into how climate models work and what they can tell us about the future of our planet.  

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Climate modeling has come a long way since Norman Phillips developed the first general circulation model (GCM) in 1956. Phillips’ model was basic compared to today’s sophisticated GCMs, but it laid the foundation for future advancements in climate science.

In the 1960s, four institutions in the United States independently developed the first atmosphere-only GCMs, marking the beginning of modern climate modeling. These models could predict changes in the atmosphere’s circulation based on alterations to atmospheric composition, such as greenhouse gas emissions.

Today, GCMs are much more advanced, with higher resolutions and the ability to simulate a wide range of Earth’s systems. Modern climate models incorporate components that simulate land, ocean, and sea-ice conditions, allowing for a more comprehensive understanding of the climate system.

When running a climate model, scientists simultaneously run models for the atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea-ice, which communicate with each other through a coupler. This integrated approach allows for a more accurate representation of how changes in one system can impact others.

Climate models have been refined over decades of scientific work, making them some of the most reliable models available. While there are still challenges to overcome, climate models can replicate the climate system with remarkable accuracy, forming the basis of scientific consensus on climate change.

At organizations like UCS, climate models are used to advance our understanding of the climate system and predict how communities will be affected by climate change. By holding those responsible for the climate crisis accountable, we can work towards a more sustainable future.

For more information on climate models and their significance, stay tuned for an upcoming climate model explainer blog.

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