Highlights
This article is also available as a podcast on YouTube.
According to the latest National Crime Victimization Survey by the USDOJ, we continue to witness concerning rates of violent crime.
With a significant number of mayors highlighting youth violence as a pressing concern, their insights call for careful consideration.
Seventy percent of Americans believe that crime levels in urban areas are unacceptable. Should their perspectives be disregarded?
Most of the media coverage I encounter suggests that reported urban crime is on the decline.
According to Gallup, the fear of crime in the US and Canada is on the rise, while other parts of the world are reporting improvements (stay tuned for our upcoming article).
Those claiming that declining reported crime rates in cities are a direct result of their policies might be overstating their position. Most likely, what we’re seeing are crime levels reverting to their averages after experiencing a staggering 50 percent uptick in urban homicides and a 36 percent rise in aggravated assaults.
Using the existing figures of reported and total crime allows individuals to support any narrative regarding crime. However, if the fear of crime remains near all-time highs, cities will struggle to thrive.
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Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Crime in America.Net – “Trusted Crime Data, Made Clear.”
Recognized by major organizations, including The Associated Press and USA Today.
Discover more about crime trends in our comprehensive overview available at Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S.
Note
There’s a crucial distinction between reported crime, which is logged with the FBI (with a sizeable amount going unreported), and total crime figures as gathered by the updated USDOJ National Crime Victimization Survey.
Article
We find ourselves facing a perplexing situation. We hear that reported crime in cities is on a downward trend, and indeed, many American cities report reductions in reported crime, according to both the FBI and various independent analysts.
USDOJ Reports Record Increases in Violent Crime for the Third Year
Despite these claims, the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey reveals record-setting increases in violence, averaging a 44 percent jump for the years 2022 and 2023. Concurrently, Gallup indicates we are at nearly unprecedented levels of fear regarding crime.
A report from the Bureau of Justice Statistics delivered on September 29, 2025, asserts that “In 2024, the rate of violent victimization was 23.3 victimizations per 1,000 individuals aged 12 or older, mirroring the rate from 2023.”
Urban areas are experiencing rising levels of violent crime.
The Majority of Mayors and Citizens Acknowledge a Crime Issue
Currently, most urban mayors are reporting that they perceive “juvenile crime” to be a serious or very serious concern.
Additionally, a significant 70% of Americans voice that crime in urban settings is unacceptable.
How should politicians, criminologists, and the general public interpret this data? If reported crime in American cities seems to decline, why is there still a resounding concern among mayors regarding youth crime, and why do we witness continuous escalations in violent crime as indicated by the National Crime Victimization Survey?
Politico
Politico reports that nearly six in ten mayors have categorized juvenile crime as “serious or very serious” in a recent survey conducted by the U.S. Conference of Mayors.
According to Mallory Newall, a vice president at a global polling firm, “It’s a pretty widely held belief that about seven in ten Americans see crime and violence levels in cities as unacceptable.”
The same poll indicates that only 14 percent perceive a decrease in crime within their communities.
Gallup
Fear of crime is deteriorating in the US and Canada, whereas the rest of the world has witnessed improvements (watch out for our forthcoming article).
A Notable Disconnect
Considering the substantial efforts made to convince Americans that urban crime is on the decline, there’s an apparent disconnect. Most of the narratives we consume suggest an overwhelming decrease in crime.
Heavily funded organizations are making significant investments in communicating that reported crime is on the decline. There are seminars and podcasts advocating the narrative that crime rates are significantly improving. Some wish to influence media portrayal by requesting a toned-down representation of police and justice issues.
Is Juvenile Crime in Urban Areas Increasing or Decreasing?
Presently, a majority of urban mayors are asserting that juvenile crime warrants serious attention.
In many locales, “juvenile” crime encompasses offenses committed by individuals aged 25 and younger, as the prevailing criminological consensus indicates that younger populations are responsible for the majority of crimes.
Accurately interpreting the term “juvenile” crime can prove challenging. Victims often report the trauma they’ve endured without differentiating between a 17-year-old and someone older; they are simply aware of being victimized by a person who appeared youthful.
Data from juvenile arrest statistics, which have plummeted recently, are not reliable indicators either. Previous administration officials celebrated this decline as a sign of progress.
Although we are informed that reported crime is declining in most American cities – which is indeed the case – we must acknowledge that a distinction exists between reported crime and total crime.
Most Crimes Go Unreported
The majority of urban crime goes unreported, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Politicians may pass around the statistics reflecting declining reported crimes; the reality, however, is that the overall picture remains much deeper.
The report Reported Crimes From 2020 to 2023 suggests that only about 38% of violent victimization incidents in urban areas get reported to law enforcement, compared to 43% in suburban settings and 51% in rural areas.
Moreover, a striking 74% of violent victimization incidents involving juveniles go unreported to the police, indicating potential growth in juvenile crime in certain cities.
In cases of identity theft, a mere 7% of incidents are documented by the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
It’s estimated that approximately 120 million porch package thefts occur in 2024, dwarfing all categories of property crimes recorded by the FBI in 2023. Only 23% of these thefts get reported to law enforcement, emphasizing the need for a more nuanced interpretation of crime data.
With around 12,000 hate crime incidents reported to the FBI while approximately 250,000 incidents are recorded by the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey, it emphasizes the stark contrast between reported and actual occurrences.
To truly grasp the complexities surrounding crime and the public’s fear of crime, we must examine data from the US Department of Justice and Gallup regarding fear while incorporating additional resources.
How Do Conflicting Crime Statistics Shape Our Understanding of Crime?
According to a 2023 report from the National Crime Victimization Survey concerning the calendar year 2022, we are witnessing the most significant violent crime increase in the country’s history, pegged at 44% (credit to analyst Jeff Asher and The Marshall Project).
As per a press release from September 12, 2024, the US Department of Justice indicated that in 2023, the rate of nonfatal violent victimization in the nation stood at 22.5 victimizations for every 1,000 individuals aged 12 or older, a figure consistent with the 2022 rate of 23.5.
The new NCVS survey for 2024 noted that rates of violent crime have not changed significantly.
Fear of Crime
Fear of crime isn’t solely dependent on statistics. However, the considerable disparity between declines in reported crimes and results from the National Crime Victimization Survey (capturing total crime) is illuminating.
Recent data from the FBI indicates an estimated 4.5% decrease in violent crime in 2024, while based on reported data, the FBI’s statistics reveal a 3.0% decline in 2023 as compared to 2022.
While these reductions are welcome, they pale in comparison to the 50% increase in homicides and a 36% rise in aggravated assaults recorded between 2019 and 2022, as reported by the Major Cities Chiefs Association.
Such crime reduction was expected following the dramatic increases, illustrating what criminologists term a regression to the mean or average.
Thus, data suggests we are facing a considerable increase in rates of violence while also experiencing minor reductions in violence as per documented reported crime statistics through the FBI.
It’s crucial to recognize that citizens often make judgments about crime based on their personal experiences and those of their peers.
As highlighted by Gallup and other sources, fear of crime remains near record levels, with many polls indicating that upwards of 60-80% of people consider crime an important issue across the U.S. and within major cities.
Conclusion
Indeed, reported crime shows signs of decline in several cities, which is an encouraging development. Yet, the data on total crime from the National Crime Victimization Survey reveals persistent and considerable increases in violence, while fear of crime is soaring.
The narratives suggesting that the decline in reported crime in urban locales stems solely from policy implementations may be overstated. The likelihood is that, while reported crime may be decreasing, it is more accurately a return to pre-existing averages following an alarming rise in homicides and aggravated assaults.
With the current understanding, it’s evident that anyone can interpret the statistics to suit any narrative. However, if anxiety regarding crime remains at nearly unprecedented levels, urban prosperity will be hindered.
Use of ChatGPT for Fact Checking
This article has been fact-checked and refined by ChatGPT for accuracy.
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