The supply chain operates within a complex system where every event influences others significantly.
Although reduced import volumes provide some relief for intermodal terminals and railheads, escalating fees and regulatory shifts are reallocating pressure throughout the supply network.
According to the October update from the ITS Logistics US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index, import volumes continue on a downward trajectory, leading to increased pressures on truckers.
The downturn in the international container market is prompting a stricter evaluation of accessorial fees as ports aim to bolster revenue during peak seasons, as stated by ITS in a recent announcement. “Furthermore, outside the ports, the changing regulatory landscape regarding non-domiciled commercial driver licenses is squeezing low-cost capacity out of the market, raising the risk of financial instability for certain carriers,” they noted.
These escalating challenges are exerting downward pressure on an already weakened drayage market, potentially causing significant issues for shippers both now and in the future, according to ITS.
“Terminals and rail ramps are not expected to encounter major difficulties from inbound or export volumes,” remarked Paul Brashier, Vice President of Global Supply Chain at ITS. “However, there are looming concerns that could adversely impact trucking and subsequently affect other operations at terminals and ports upstream.”
A coordinated federal and state effort launched in September targeting non-domiciled CDLs and mandating English proficiency among drivers is already triggering a wave of bankruptcies among small and mid-sized carriers. Several prominent drayage providers have halted their operations.
The overarching consequence, according to ITS, is an escalation of financial hurdles for numerous companies within a rate environment that is unfavorable to operational costs, leading to diminished overall capacity, which will ultimately affect terminal and port performance.
“In the short term, these new regulations will strip capacity from the ecosystem and induce market instability,” added Brashier. “Longer-term repercussions could result in many carriers exiting the market as they grapple with both regulatory changes and a persistent freight recession that has driven rates down to or below sustainable levels. Evaluating the stability of service providers will become increasingly critical as shippers gear up for RFP activities in late 2025 and early 2026.”
The National Retail Federation has previously predicted the U.S. import volume for September to be 2.12 million TEUs, a decline from 2.28 million TEUs in August, reflecting a 6.8% decrease compared to the previous year. The trade organization anticipates that monthly import figures will continue to decline for the rest of the year, influenced by tariffs and frontloading that occurred in the first half of the year.
