Honduras Election: A Breakfast of Nostalgia and Political Endorsements
TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras — In the heart of the Honduran capital, Reyna Vega serves up hearty breakfasts of eggs, fried bananas with cream, and refried beans alongside corn tortillas in her modest two-table eatery. But as she prepared meals on Monday, it was the rising prices of these staples — a microcosm of global inflation — that had her eager to cast her vote in the recent Honduran presidential election. She found herself drawn to former Tegucigalpa Mayor Nasry Asfura, a figure who embodied a nostalgic promise of better times.
Vega’s allegiance to Asfura of the National Party stemmed not only from his accomplishments in infrastructure development as mayor but also from an intense desire to unseat the ruling democratic socialist LIBRE (Liberty and Re-foundation Party). However, she noted that some of her friends, previously torn between Asfura and Salvador Nasralla of the Liberal Party, were influenced by none other than former U.S. President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Asfura in the campaign’s final stretch.
Trump’s Interference: A Double-Edged Sword
The impact of Trump’s endorsement has sparked heated discussions in Honduras. While some argue that Rixi Moncada of LIBRE would have struggled regardless of Trump’s assertions that she would lead the nation into a Venezuela-like crisis, others contend that these remarks significantly reshaped the electoral landscape. Notably, Nasralla found himself just a few hundred votes behind Asfura, despite being perceived as trailing earlier in the campaign.
Juan Carlos Aguilar, director of the NGO More Just Society, suggested that Trump’s influence had narrowed the gap between Asfura and Nasralla more than prior polls had indicated. His comments, Aguilar noted, played a crucial role in swaying undecided voters and those contemplating a “loan” of their votes to Nasralla but ultimately opting for Asfura instead.
Fabricio Paz Munguía, a supporter of Nasralla from San Pedro Sula, remarked that Trump’s remarks prompted many Hondurans to reconsider their choices. “They made a lot of people reflect on what truly would be good for the country,” he said.
A Tight Presidential Race
The early results of the election left Asfura with a tenuous lead, particularly buoyed by strong support from the capital, whose tallies arrived first. However, as more votes were counted, Nasralla surged to a near tie with about 39% of the vote. In Honduras’ electoral system, the candidate with the most votes wins the presidency, even if the total falls below the 50% mark.
Ana Paola Hall, president of the National Electoral Council, confirmed on the social media platform X that preliminary results had been released from 57% of polling places, showing Asfura ahead by a mere 515 votes. While the count continues, it remains unclear when further updates will be available, as the official results’ website was reportedly down. Both candidates, meanwhile, painted dramatically different narratives of their electoral prospects without prematurely claiming victory.
Asfura expressed calm confidence, stating, “We’re calm, the data are going to come out,” while Nasralla asserted that the pending votes from northern areas, where his party is stronger, would ultimately tip the scales in his favor. Interestingly, even some who voted for Asfura appeared amenable to a potential Nasralla victory, driven by the shared goal of removing LIBRE from power.
Vega’s son, 32-year-old Eddy Xavier Vega, echoed this sentiment, stating, “Either of the two (Asfura or Nasralla) is good; what we didn’t want was LIBRE.”
Nostalgia for the National Party
Despite a reported decline in murder rates and improved economic indicators during LIBRE President Xiomara Castro’s administration, many Hondurans feel a longing for the days of her predecessor, ex-President Juan Orlando Hernández from the National Party. This nostalgia was further bolstered by Trump’s recent announcement that he would pardon Hernández, who is currently serving a 45-year sentence in the U.S. for drug trafficking during his presidency.
For voters like 20-year-old Jair Ávila, who cast his ballot for the first time, the name Hernández resonated more than Asfura’s. He admitted that Trump’s pledge of a pardon influenced his decision, recalling a time when life seemed easier under Hernández’s administration. “He gave away houses, the basic market basket (of goods) was cheaper, the gasoline,” he reflected. “We were better off with him, honestly.”
Concerns for Hondurans Abroad
Trump’s endorsement of Asfura also ignited hopes among some that it might offer protection to Honduran migrants in the U.S. from deportation should Asfura emerge victorious. Reyna Vega has numerous relatives in the U.S. who send remittances back home, and she expressed relief that none have faced deportation. “Thank God, none of them have been deported,” she stated. She also voiced her belief that Hernández could return with a “different mentality,” should he be reinstated.
However, with preliminary results still too close to call, it may take days to declare an official winner, and uncertainty looms over whether LIBRE will concede gracefully. Although Moncada trailed by 20 percentage points as of Monday, she has not given up, urging her supporters to remain vigilant until every vote is counted.
