Trump’s Popularity Dips in Pennsylvania Bellwether as Democrats Gain Ground
A recent private poll, revealing a significant shift in the political landscape of one of America’s key battlegrounds, indicates that President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are plummeting, while local Democrats are gaining traction—an ominous sign for the Republican Party as the 2026 midterms approach.
The survey conducted by Upswing Research & Strategy, a Democratic firm, shows that 53 percent of likely voters in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, view Trump unfavorably, compared to only 42 percent who hold a favorable view. This information was first shared with POLITICO.
Bucks County, a suburban enclave of Philadelphia, has consistently been a focal point for presidential and statewide candidates alike. Notably, this was the very location where Trump famously donned an apron at a McDonald’s fry station during the 2024 election campaign. The county was a nail-biter in the last election, with Trump edging out a victory by less than one percentage point following Biden’s narrow win in 2020.
Representing this politically charged district is Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who has fended off Democratic challenges since his election in 2017 by projecting a moderate image. Interestingly, the survey did not assess Fitzpatrick’s standing, despite Democratic efforts to unseat him. He distinguished himself from his party by being one of only two House Republicans to vote against the final passage of Trump’s signature legislation this year, yet Democrats remain hopeful about undermining his independent facade in the upcoming election.
“The data clearly suggests a backlash against Trump and the MAGA Republicans overall,” stated Ethan Smith, a founding partner at Upswing Research & Strategy. “Moreover, the findings indicate we may be entering a phase of heightened enthusiasm among Democrats, as evidenced by their eagerness to engage in the electoral process.”
The poll further highlights the challenges faced by Republican Stacy Garrity in her bid against Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Shapiro enjoys a favorable rating of 55 percent, with only 27 percent viewing him unfavorably. Interestingly, nearly a quarter of Republican respondents also expressed a favorable opinion of the incumbent governor.
Commissioned by the Democratic PAC Bucks United, which supports local candidates for various offices, the Upswing survey also illuminated the competitive races for district attorney and sheriff in Bucks County. In the race for D.A., Democratic nominee Joe Khan leads Republican incumbent Jennifer Schorn by 49 percent to 43 percent, with 8 percent of voters still undecided. Similarly, Danny Ceisler, the Democratic candidate for sheriff, holds a slight edge over GOP incumbent Fred Harran at 48 percent to 43 percent, leaving 9 percent undecided.
Trump’s unfavorability rating has noticeably deteriorated compared to a survey conducted last September, which indicated that 50 percent of likely voters viewed him unfavorably against 45 percent who held a favorable view.
The August poll, which included responses from 501 likely voters in Bucks County, was conducted from August 5 to 10 and employed a mix of landline and cell phone calls, as well as text-to-Web methods. The margin of error stands at plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
