The UK is facing a new reality when it comes to summer temperatures, with the Met Office warning that temperatures exceeding 40°C are becoming increasingly likely. In July 2022, Lincolnshire recorded a record-breaking temperature of 40.3°C, a level never seen before in the country. Scientists attributed this extreme heatwave to climate change, which made it at least 10 times more likely to occur.
Now, researchers led by Gillian Kay at the Met Office have used climate models to simulate over 2500 UK summers to understand the potential for extreme temperatures under current climate conditions. Their findings reveal a 50% likelihood of temperatures above 40°C in the next 12 years, with the south and east of England being the most vulnerable to heat extremes. The chances of experiencing such extreme heat have increased rapidly in recent decades, with a sixfold increase since the 1980s and nearly tripling since 2000.
The simulations also provide insight into the weather conditions necessary to produce extreme heat in the UK. The most likely scenario involves a persistent heatwave settling over Europe and then moving across the UK’s south and east coasts. This week, the Met Office issued a warning of another heatwave on the horizon, triggered by intense warmth across the European continent.
As the climate continues to warm, heatwaves are becoming more frequent and persistent. The hot summer of 1976, where daytime temperatures remained above 28°C for a fortnight, could now persist for well over a month in today’s climate. The research also indicates the possibility of three or four consecutive days with temperatures exceeding 40°C under current conditions.
The implications of prolonged heatwaves are significant, not only straining environmental ecosystems but also posing health risks to the population. Prolonged exposure to high temperatures increases the risk of cardiac arrest and stroke, particularly in regions like the UK where air conditioning in homes is uncommon. During the July 2022 heatwave, the UK experienced over 1200 excess deaths, disruptions in rail transport, school closures, and wildfires.
Gillian Kay emphasizes the need for public authorities, especially those responsible for public health, to prepare for more intense and frequent heatwaves. Stress-testing systems to ensure they can cope with extreme temperatures is crucial in mitigating the impact of heatwaves on society. As temperatures continue to rise, proactive measures are essential to safeguard the population and infrastructure from the effects of extreme heat events.
