US government wants to have a useful quantum computer by 2028

The US government is aiming to secure a quantum computer capable of aiding scientific advancements within two years. This technology is intended to enhance the development of new materials, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural and manufacturing molecules.

Initially a concept for theoretical physicists, quantum computers have become a reality but have yet to demonstrate significant practical or commercial value. Their effectiveness is contingent on their size, dictated by the number of qubits, and their reliability. Current models are both limited in size and prone to errors.

The US Department of Energy’s Quantum Genesis initiative targets 2028 as a turning point. This initiative includes a competition and aims to establish a national quantum supercomputing facility as part of the broader Genesis Mission, which also involves funding researchers.

By 2028, the DoE envisions quantum computers being robust enough to address unresolved issues in chemistry, materials science, plasma physics, and high-energy physics. Darío Gil, under secretary for science at the DoE, expresses confidence in the building blocks already available, suggesting that a significant breakthrough is unnecessary.

Gil attributes his confidence to recent advancements in quantum computing, including improved qubit construction and significant progress in error-correcting algorithms. He believes AI will assist in reaching the 2028 goal by optimizing quantum computer controls.

Juliette Peyronnet of the quantum computing company Alice & Bob describes the 2028 target as ambitious but feasible. Paul Stimers from the Quantum Industry Coalition notes that several firms have previously announced plans to deliver a scientifically valuable, error-free quantum computer by 2028 or shortly thereafter.

This DoE announcement follows President Donald Trump’s signing of two executive orders on quantum technology and a $2 billion investment from the US Department of Commerce into several quantum computing companies.

Certain quantum technologies mentioned in the executive orders, such as quantum sensors, are already commercially viable and are expected to be deployed more widely, including in space in collaboration with NASA. Quantum computing’s potential to become a formidable encryption-breaking tool has drawn attention, though it faces significant challenges on the path to 2028.

Gil acknowledges the substantial learning required to transition from current devices to quantum computers that must be exponentially larger. He points out the complexity of scaling up from a device to a chip to a system as a major challenge. Stimers highlights potential supply chain problems due to the exotic nature of many components needed for advanced quantum devices.

The US is not alone in advancing quantum technology. The UK plans to acquire large-scale quantum computers after 2030 via the ProQure program. Meanwhile, China has made quantum computing a central focus of its next five-year national development strategy, alongside artificial intelligence. The US’s 2028 target represents the most aggressive timeline among these nations, according to Gil.