Doha, Qatar:
Following the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by Israel, the Palestinian group faces a significant setback. While his death has created a leadership vacuum, Hamas militants remain resolute in their determination to continue the fight.
Sinwar orchestrated the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel that led to the Gaza war and assumed leadership of Hamas in August after the passing of his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh.
Despite Israel’s view of Sinwar’s demise as a victory, experts suggest that Hamas could leverage his legacy to inspire a new generation of fighters who have experienced the consequences of Israeli retaliation firsthand.
Here is an outlook on what the future might hold for Hamas.
Significance of the Blow
Confirming Sinwar’s death, Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya expressed sorrow over the loss of their “great leader.” The event not only symbolizes a significant moment but also leaves a void in the well-connected organization, according to Middle East analyst Andreas Krieg of King’s College London.
His passing comes shortly after the death of Hamas’s political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, with both Hamas and Iran accusing Israel of his demise.
Krieg noted a growing divide between Hamas’s political leadership, mainly in exile in Qatar, and its military and operational branches in Gaza.
James Dorsey from the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute described Sinwar as an exceptional figure within Hamas who garnered support from both political and military factions.
Potential Successors
With Sinwar’s absence, potential candidates for Hamas leadership include figures like Musa Abu Marzuk and Khalil al-Hayya, who are based outside of Gaza. Other exiled leaders such as Khaled Meshaal could also be considered.
Since Sinwar’s appointment as leader in August was seen as a shift towards prioritizing armed struggle, the next leader is likely to come from the operational level, according to Krieg.
There is speculation that Sinwar’s younger brother Mohammed Sinwar could be a leading candidate due to his reputation as a militant fighter.
Hamas’s Resilience
Despite the tactical setback of losing their leader, Hamas remains committed to armed resistance against Israel, as highlighted by Hayya in his statement following Sinwar’s death.
Dorsey emphasized Hamas’s historical resilience in the face of leadership assassinations, suggesting that Sinwar’s legacy will endure alongside the memory of the October 7 attack.
While Sinwar’s death may galvanize Hamas’s supporters, the ongoing conflict is fueled by the desperation and lack of hope among Gaza’s population, according to Dorsey.
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