With Subsidies In Limbo, Obamacare New Sign-Ups Lag Last Year’s Pace

Obamacare Enrollment Lags Behind Last Year’s Record Pace

Enrollment in individual coverage under the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, lags last year’s pace in new sign-ups, according to figures released by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.

CMS said “nearly 950,000 consumers who do not currently have health care coverage through plans in the individual market Marketplace have signed up for coverage in 2026, since the start of the Marketplace Open Enrollment Period (OEP) on November 1, 2025,” in a “snapshot” report posted Friday on the agency’s website. By comparison, a CMS press release at the same time last year said nearly 988,000 consumers who didn’t have individual coverage signed up for 2025 coverage.

The new CMS figures come as Congress weighs whether to extend tax credits, or subsidies, that would make health insurance premiums more affordable for individuals. They were enhanced by the Biden administration and the Democratic-controlled Congress in 2021, allowing more Americans to buy coverage.

The enhanced subsidies, which expire at the end of this year unless Congress and the Donald Trump administration extend them, helped enrollment in the ACA’s individual coverage eclipse a record 24 million Americans, boosting its popularity to all-time highs. Of those enrolled, 22 million currently get a tax credit. Their premium payments will increase 114% on average to $1,904 annually from $888, KFF data shows, if enhanced subsidies aren’t extended.

Despite the enhanced tax credits being in limbo, millions of Americans are returning to buy coverage so it remains unclear whether enrollment will see a big decrease. “Existing consumers are also returning to the Marketplace to actively renew their coverage, and anyone who does not actively renew will be automatically re-enrolled for 2026,” CMS said in its snapshot.

CMS statistics show 5.75 million have selected plans on all exchanges across the country and 4.8 million are “returning consumers.” At this point last year, nearly 4.4 million existing consumers had already returned to the marketplace to select a plan for 2025. And 5.3 million people had selected plans via all marketplaces, according to CMS’ report in December of last year.

Open enrollment began Nov. 1 and runs to Dec. 15.

A new KFF poll released last week said one in four Obamacare enrollees will “very likely go without” coverage next year if tax credits aren’t extended and premiums doubled for those who buy individual coverage under the ACA.

More than 80% of Obamacare enrollees, including 7 in 10 Republicans, say Congress should extend the tax credits. Though there has been no agreement to do so, there is bipartisan legislation in the U.S. House of Representatives that would extend the tax credits for two years.