Wall Street is eagerly anticipating Apple’s third-quarter results after the bell, with users on prediction platform Kalshi placing bets on what will be discussed on the iPhone maker’s upcoming earnings call.
According to Kalshi, there is a high probability that Apple will mention words like “China” and “Tariff” during the call, with the mention of “Severance” also likely. This betting activity has generated almost $43,000 in trading volumes.
Apple has faced pressure to increase domestic manufacturing, especially after President Donald Trump’s announcement that iPhones not made in the U.S. would face a 25% tariff. In response, Apple recently announced the opening of a manufacturing academy in downtown Detroit, where it will offer workshops on manufacturing and artificial intelligence to small and medium-sized businesses.
Analysts have pointed out that producing iPhones in the U.S. would significantly raise the device’s cost, with estimates ranging from $1,500 to $3,500. While most iPhones are currently manufactured in China, Apple has expanded its production to India to navigate the uncertainties surrounding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
Recent reports have shown that India has surpassed China in smartphone exports during the second quarter, indicating a shift in Apple’s production strategy.
Barclays analyst Tim Long predicts that iPhones will face challenges in the current macroeconomic environment, citing a lack of new product offerings and market share losses in China. He also notes that the majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. are expected to originate from India in the June quarter.
In addition to discussions on China tariffs, Kalshi users are anticipating conversations about Apple TV+ series “Severance,” which gained popularity with its second season premiere. The show was recently renewed for a third season.
Other entertainment industry topics like “Formula 1/F1” are also expected to be addressed, with users placing high odds on its mention. “F1: The Movie” has become Apple’s highest-grossing theatrical film, generating over $293 million globally shortly after its release.
Apple’s stock performance has been lackluster, with shares remaining near the flatline in midday trading. The company’s year-to-date fall stands at nearly 17%, contrasting with the S&P 500’s rise of over 8% in the same period.
The third-quarter earnings call is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET on Thursday, where analysts anticipate a single-digit-percentage increase in earnings and revenue compared to the previous year. Stay tuned for more updates on Apple’s performance and future prospects.
