5 things to watch in Tuesday's Illinois primaries

The Illinois primaries have become a battleground of significant financial investment, with large sums directed at the closely-watched Senate race and numerous competitive House seats.

Organizations linked to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) have injected millions into pivotal races. Meanwhile, Democratic Governor JB Pritzker is at odds with several influential Black leaders in Illinois, as generational conflicts continue to challenge the Democratic Party following the 2024 elections.

Here’s what POLITICO is keeping an eye on today.

Can AIPAC avoid another setback?

After facing criticism from moderate Democrats for mistakenly supporting a progressive candidate in New Jersey, AIPAC is striving to avoid a similar misstep in Illinois. The organization is under pressure as Democrats increasingly question both Israel and AIPAC itself, with significant spending focused on several House races, especially the one to succeed retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky in the 9th district.

Democratic strategists caution that AIPAC’s attacks on Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, who has criticized Israel, have inadvertently opened the door for progressive challenger Kat Abughazaleh, a Palestinian-American with strong criticisms of Israel. This shift has left state Sen. Laura Fine, AIPAC’s preferred candidate, less effectively supported. In response, AIPAC has adjusted its strategy, now concentrating its efforts on Abughazaleh.

“There’s been a strategy shift,” according to a source familiar with AIPAC’s plans, who requested anonymity. “Our primary goal in Illinois is to prevent potential ‘Squad’ members from being elected to Congress.”

The pressing question for Tuesday’s election is whether this strategic change came too late to prevent another setback for AIPAC.

Will JB Pritzker’s involvement benefit or hinder him?

Governor Pritzker has been vocally supporting and significantly funding Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s Senate campaign against Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly, a move that has upset some key Black leaders.

“A sitting governor shouldn’t be heavy-handing the race,” said Congressional Black Caucus Chair Yvette Clarke, whose caucus backs Kelly, as told to Punchbowl earlier this month. “Quite frankly, his behavior in this race won’t soon be forgotten.”

Concerns among Black Democrats center on the possibility that Kelly and Stratton, both Black women, may split the Black vote, further complicated by Pritzker’s endorsement. This division could potentially aid Krishnamoorthi in winning, thereby reducing the chances of a Black woman being elected to the Senate in this cycle.

Krishnamoorthi has been leading most public polls, benefiting from a substantial early cash advantage that allowed him to dominate TV advertising. Pritzker’s financial support has helped Stratton narrow the gap, while Kelly remains in third place in many polls.

“People are conflicted as to whether they should support the candidate they prefer or choose the one polls indicate as most viable,” noted former Democratic Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot, who supports Kelly, in a recent interview. “That’s the tension and conflict I’m hearing across the board, particularly among Black Illinoisans.”

What do these races indicate about the Democratic Party’s future?

The debates over Israel and racial tensions, alongside a widening generational gap, have been central to Illinois’ primary contests.

Tuesday’s outcomes will offer an early indication, following the Texas primaries earlier, of the direction the party is heading, as it continues to contend with losses to Republicans in 2024.

How significant are the external influences?

Over $35 million has been spent on TV advertising for Illinois races, according to AdImpact, with tech interests at the forefront. Pro-AI and pro-Crypto industry groups alone have accounted for over $15 million of this spending. This substantial investment has surprised many veteran Illinois political strategists familiar with intense campaigns.

Some candidates have openly sought support from these groups. Jesse Jackson Jr., running to reclaim the IL-02 seat he once held, used AI technology in an ad to restore the voice of Bobby Rush (D-Ill.) after his throat cancer treatment.

The extensive spending by these groups to secure allies in Congress could significantly influence policy debates on regulating two rapidly growing industries. The success of their preferred candidates will likely dictate their future financial strategies.

Who will turn out to vote?

Hispanic voter turnout was a strong component for Democrats in the Texas primary and several recent special elections, largely driven by reaction to aggressive immigration policies and ongoing economic uncertainty.

It remains to be seen if this trend continues in Tuesday’s primaries, especially in Chicagoland, which experienced its own deportation surge last fall. Most of these primaries are in safely Democratic districts.

Another factor is voter turnout in districts where support for Israel is a key issue. The Senate primary should draw voters statewide, and POLITICO will be monitoring turnout in the 2nd, 7th, 8th, and 9th districts to assess how internal Democratic disagreements and the influx of external funding impact voting behavior.

Alec Hernández and Jessica Piper contributed to this report.