ALBANY, New York — Bruce Blakeman, a Republican candidate for governor, aims to build on the success of former Rep. Lee Zeldin in the Empire State, but the path to turning New York red is challenging.
Republicans narrowly missed capturing the New York governor’s office four years ago, with Zeldin coming within 6 points of defeating Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.
Currently, the 70-year-old Blakeman trails Hochul by double digits in public polls. His close ties to President Donald Trump and appearances with figures like John Eastman have provided Hochul’s team with ample material for criticism. Furthermore, Blakeman faces fundraising challenges as Democrats seek to deny him matching funds under New York’s public financing system, potentially crippling his campaign.
The situation worsened as the New York Democratic Party launched a seven-figure ad campaign this month, labeling Blakeman as a Trump supporter. Blakeman’s $1.6 million in campaign funds pale in comparison to Hochul’s war chest, which is approximately tenfold.
“What do the Irish say? It’s a long way to Tipperary,” commented billionaire John Catsimatidis, a Republican mogul and radio station owner, discussing the fundraising gap. “Bruce Blakeman has to ensure he raises money and spends it wisely.”
Since Zeldin’s notable performance four years ago, the GOP in New York has increased its registered voters, but a vast enrollment gap persists. Democrats continue to hold key suburban swing House seats, dominate the Albany statehouse, and surpass Republicans in statewide fundraising.
Convincing affluent donors that a Republican candidate can win remains a daunting task.
“Republican donors in New York must decide whether to support our candidate or remain inactive, make excuses for not donating, complain, and then leave,” stated Rob Astorino, the 2014 GOP gubernatorial nominee and former Westchester County Executive.
“Our donor class had complaints, but they were hesitant or unwilling to donate,” he added. “Money can level the playing field in many ways, which Democrats fear.”
Blakeman’s campaign asserts its viability. An internal voter survey by Republican pollster John McLaughlin, conducted from March 4 to March 8, showed Hochul leading Blakeman by only 9 points, 52 percent to 43 percent. The campaign has enlisted Howard Fensterman, a lawyer, Democratic donor, and co-founder of a politically connected Long Island law firm, as its finance chair. Blakeman was a partner at the firm, Abrams Fensterman, from 2007 to 2013.
Both the poll and Fensterman’s participation in Blakeman’s campaign had not been previously reported.
Republicans are relying on Blakeman to be a formidable candidate during a midterm election year that is shaping up to be challenging for them. To retain control of the House, the GOP must succeed in down-ballot races, including several New York swing seats. At a minimum, Blakeman needs to energize Republican and conservative-leaning independents to make the party competitive in this solidly blue state.
Unlike Rep. Elise Stefanik, Blakeman lacks the statewide profile that Hochul — who was once a little-known lieutenant governor — has built during her first full term. Besides amassing a substantial campaign fund, Hochul has a well-staffed team that has consistently targeted Blakeman.
New York Republicans have not held the governor’s office for 20 years, a streak that nearly ended with Zeldin. The former House member, who campaigned heavily on a public safety platform, increased his name recognition and honed his platform during a four-candidate primary. In contrast, four years later, Blakeman is scarcely visible on New York’s political landscape.
Republicans, even those who believe Blakeman’s campaign has made progress recently, acknowledge that the race’s low visibility, roughly eight months before Election Day, further complicates an already difficult situation for Blakeman.
“People often say primaries are bad, but that’s usually party members who say that because it simplifies their lives when there’s no primary,” said Steve McLaughlin, the Republican Rensselaer County executive and a Blakeman ally. “Primaries help candidates find their message and become better known because there’s activity around the race. Sometimes they’re purifying. I believe it would have benefited in some ways from a primary.”
Blakeman launched his gubernatorial campaign in December, a relatively late start after winning reelection as Nassau County’s top official a month prior. He immediately faced skepticism from fellow Republicans who questioned his previous statements on gun control and self-described “pro-choice” stance on abortion. Meanwhile, Stefanik supporters were upset after she withdrew from what was expected to be a competitive challenge to Hochul. Her swift exit led some Republicans to suspect that Blakeman had pushed her out.
Simultaneously, the Long Islander had to garner support from right-leaning upstate voters wary of New York City’s influence on the state.
Yet, Republicans believe he has begun to win over individuals outside his significant Nassau County base. Trump’s formal endorsement — which Stefanik did not receive when she was briefly in the race — provided him with a boost among GOP voters.
“Among Republicans, he’s making an impact,” said Michael Caputo, a former Trump administration official who managed Carl Paladino’s 2010 gubernatorial campaign. “Many of us supported Elise. He’s successfully consolidating the base, and they seem increasingly satisfied with his candidacy.”
Blakeman has plenty of issues to leverage against Hochul, who in January achieved her highest favorability rating of her gubernatorial career in the Siena University poll.
Blakeman’s team has criticized Hochul over rising utility bills. He has condemned the state’s high tax climate and warned that the governor will yield to demands from left-wing Democrats, such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, to increase taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals. In this regard, he has sought to link the governor to the mayor’s progressive proposals, such as a drastic reduction in the inheritance tax threshold from $7.3 million to $750,000, which would affect a broad range of middle-income people.
“Bruce has a wide array of issues to choose from,” Caputo noted.
Democrats, however, are working to show they have learned from the 2022 setback, when Hochul’s lack of influence resulted in the loss of several House seats in the New York City suburbs.
The governor has moved to strengthen the political infrastructure of the state Democratic Committee — an organization that former Gov. Andrew Cuomo allowed to weaken during his tenure. She has used the committee as a fundraising tool, and this month, the party announced a continuous advertising campaign against Blakeman, spending over $1 million to criticize his support for Trump.
The ad campaign highlights Hochul’s more proactive effort to portray her opponent as a MAGA ally — a strategy based on the president’s unpopularity with Democrats and independents, which could harm the New York Republican.
Hochul’s team has been keen to emphasize Blakeman’s presence alongside Eastman at a GOP event in Queens. The attorney is considered the architect of Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election results. Blakeman’s campaign stated he was unfamiliar with Eastman and did not spend much time at the event.
Blakeman’s support for strict deportation enforcement has also put him at odds with voters critical of federal enforcement agencies like ICE following unrest in Minnesota earlier this year.
On policy, Hochul is working to dilute a climate law she argues will raise utility costs. She is resisting leftist calls to increase taxes in her election-year budget, arguing that doing so will drive more people out of the state. Hochul adopted these positions after her sole primary opponent, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, ended his campaign following Mamdani’s endorsement for her reelection. These developments have neutralized much of New York’s political left.
Overall, her approach paints a picture of a governor who is closing off potential avenues of attack and consolidating support.
Matching the resources available to Hochul is difficult for Blakeman.
In contrast, Blakeman’s campaign has faced fundraising difficulties. He has raised less than $1 million since his mid-December launch, and his expenses are high: Blakeman reported $1.1 million in expenditures after receiving a seven-figure transfer from the Nassau County GOP.
Meanwhile, Democrats are pushing to disqualify Blakeman from receiving public matching funds, arguing that he failed to submit the necessary paperwork, as reported by Newsday. If they succeed, he would lose millions of dollars in funding; Hochul is not participating in the program.
A Blakeman campaign spokesperson criticized the effort to deny him matching funds as “desperate” and pointed out that, in a Kafkaesque twist, the required form that public financing officials claim must be filed does not yet exist.
“The state’s website lists Bruce Blakeman as eligible for the matching funds program, the form they claim he needed to file doesn’t even exist, and Hochul changed the rules right after Bruce qualified — pure corruption to cover Hochul’s affordability crisis,” said spokesperson Madison Spanodemos.
Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki criticized the Blakeman campaign for “MAGA brainrot” for defending Trump’s policies on tariffs, deportations, and Medicaid.
“Our thoughts and prayers are with the New York GOP: WE wouldn’t want to be stuck with him either,” he said.
Nevertheless, Republican activists, used to being outspent, are not ringing alarm bells just yet.
“The governor has a huge amount of money,” said Tom King, the head of the New York State Rifle And Pistol Association. “So you can always use more money. That’s the only advantage of not having a primary, you don’t have to spend money on it — you can put it right into the race.”
