Abigail Spanberger faces a national test with Virginia redistricting

Democrats in Virginia are urging Gov. Abigail Spanberger to intensify efforts toward finalizing their redistricting campaign. They are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of losing the upcoming April special election on their chances to flip the House in November.

The push to redraw Virginia’s congressional maps could result in a 10-to-1 seat advantage for Democrats if the referendum passes, potentially granting them four additional seats compared to the current map. Despite having a fundraising edge of ten times over Republicans, the GOP is showing strong early voting turnout.

With the election less than a month away, nearly a dozen Democratic state lawmakers, strategists, and candidates believe Spanberger, a widely popular governor who won decisively last November, should more actively promote the referendum. They warn she could face significant blame if the initiative fails.

Spanberger has endorsed the referendum and released her first campaign ad in support of it, as initially reported by POLITICO. However, critics argue this effort falls short for a cause that should be a top priority for Democrats as they counter similar GOP efforts in other states.

“We Democrats gotta stop bringing a spork to a knife fight. If the Democrats are putting all their stock in this, like, let’s bring our A game,” stated Beth Macy, a Democrat running for Congress in one of the five GOP-held House districts. She noted that Spanberger, who achieved a significant win in 2025, would be a beneficial spokesperson for the redistricting effort.

Before taking office, Spanberger campaigned as a moderate and was initially hesitant about fully endorsing the extensive redistricting plan approved by the Democratic-led legislature. Once in office, she aligned with the party and signed the legislation allowing the referendum. However, she hasn’t been as vocal on the issue compared to other prominent Democrats in the state or governors like Gavin Newsom of California, who have championed similar efforts.

The stakes for Spanberger are high: a defeat could affect her growing prominence on the national scene.

A Democratic activist involved in the redistricting campaign, speaking anonymously, questioned Spanberger’s stance, noting, “Out in the field, we really don’t know whether she is for or against this thing.”

Spanberger’s team maintains she is actively advocating for the new map.

“There isn’t a Democrat in Virginia who has done more to encourage voters to support this referendum than Governor Spanberger,” commented Libby Wiet, a spokesperson for Spanberger. She emphasized Spanberger’s ability to connect with voters who previously supported the bipartisan commission in 2020 but now recognize the changed political landscape after the President’s claims of entitlement to more Republican seats.

Virginia’s political climate is not as liberal as California’s, and many Democrats view mobilizing voters for an April election as a significant challenge. Spanberger, a new governor, also has other legislative priorities that might take precedence over aiding Democrats in gaining control of the House. Additionally, the “yes” campaign risks alienating Virginians who had previously approved a constitutional amendment for a bipartisan redistricting commission by a two-to-one margin in 2020.

The Virginia Supreme Court has added uncertainty by reserving the right to potentially invalidate the redistricting initiative post-election.

Recent polls have not guaranteed Democratic success. Nearly two-thirds of Virginians favor the current district-drawing method, with slightly over half indicating they would maintain the existing process, according to a Roanoke College survey. A January survey showed a narrow majority, 51 percent, supporting the Democratic-led redistricting effort.

Supporters of Spanberger argue that she shouldn’t be the sole leader of the “yes” campaign. They contend that it is a collective effort, supported by key Democrats in the state, including the lieutenant governor, attorney general, and Senators Tim Kaine and Mark Warner.

“There’s no one person that has to carry the weight alone,” said Kéren Charles Dongo, campaign manager for Virginia for Fair Elections, which has raised more than $33 million in donations to engage voters.

Virginia House Speaker Don Scott, a key figure in the redistricting push, dismissed comparisons between Spanberger and Newsom, arguing against the necessity for her to hold more public events.

“She’s only been on a job freaking 70 days,” he remarked. “We’re gonna be fine. I feel very confident that we’re gonna win.”

This week, Spanberger launched a seven-figure ad campaign, directly addressing voters about the temporary nature of the redistricting effort and criticizing “Trump’s Redistricting War.” Dongo’s group has been extensively advertising, including an ad featuring former President Barack Obama urging Virginians to seize the opportunity to balance power in Washington. Campaign insiders highlight the opening of more voting sites in Democratic areas like Northern Virginia, expecting an increase in “yes” voters as Election Day approaches.

Some Democrats privately hope Spanberger will increase her involvement as the campaign concludes, following her review of legislative bills.

“I think it’s easier if there’s somebody who’s a central person,” commented Sarah Pendergraph, chair of the Roanoke City Democratic Committee, suggesting that a prominent figure like Spanberger could galvanize more volunteers and voters.

Conservatives in Virginia have criticized Spanberger on social media, making her a focal point of their opposition to the redistricting effort. They have accused her of reversing her position and succumbing to pressure from Democrats at both state and national levels.

“Abigail Spanberger seems to be intent on trying to turn Virginia into California east, so she probably will welcome Gavin Newsom,” stated Jason Miyares, co-chair of Virginians for Fair Maps, which opposes the measure and has raised approximately $3 million.

As Spanberger cast her ballot last Friday, a small group of cameras captured the moment, and she addressed the media from the Richmond City Elections office parking lot, countering Republican claims of her inconsistency on gerrymandering.

“Had they spoken in opposition to [Trump’s] efforts, I would perhaps take their level of consternation with a bit more seriousness,” Spanberger stated. “It wasn’t until their individual House seats seemed in doubt … that they decided to have any opposition to redistricting.”

This response did not satisfy some Virginia Democrats, who wished Spanberger had been more forceful — especially in light of misleading mailers from Republican-aligned groups suggesting she opposes the redistricting initiative.

“She is certainly not 1,000 percent on board,” remarked a Democratic official, who was granted anonymity to discuss their views on the governor’s engagement. The official suggested the “yes” campaign should recruit high-profile supporters like Obama, Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren to energize their base and prevent the redistricting effort from failing.

“If it goes down,” the official added, “[Spanberger] is gonna own it [so she] might as well go out there.”