Highlights
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New findings from RAND investigate the effects of violent crime and gun violence on the Black community.
Firearms result in the disproportionate deaths of Black individuals. Non-Hispanic Black people experience the highest homicide rates among all racial and ethnic groups in the U.S., with guns involved in 80 percent of these homicides.
Projections suggest that one in every 38 Black men and one in every 287 Black women will die due to gun violence.
Black individuals face nonfatal gun assaults at rates 20 times higher than their White counterparts, accounting for 61.5 percent of all firearm assaults.
A study surveying 3,015 Black adults found that 41 percent knew someone who had been shot, and 38 percent had witnessed or heard about shootings in their area.
CrimeinAmerica.Net-ChatGPT’s “Top 10 Sources for Crime in America” based on primary statistical sources with trusted secondary analysis.
Notes
In addition to the RAND report, this article utilizes contextual data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) of the U.S. Department of Justice, using the National Crime Victimization Survey, considered a leading measure of crime in the U.S. by the USDOJ, the Census Bureau, and criminal justice experts.
I often write about the effects of violent crimes on employment, community economics, health, mental health, and substance abuse. RAND data corroborates these observations.
The last report from the Bureau of Justice Statistics recorded 6,671,640 violent crimes. The rate of violent crimes (excluding simple assault) in the U.S. rose by 44 percent in 2022, with rates remaining largely unchanged since. FBI statistics based on reported crimes (most crimes are not reported) indicate a significant decline in violent crime in recent years.
Article
I’ve followed RAND’s research for decades, valuing their commitment to precise crime data. Years ago, RAND researchers highlighted that a small fraction of offenders are responsible for a large share of serious crimes.
Below is a summary from a document titled The Impact of Firearm Violence in Black Communities. Readers are encouraged to consult the full document for sources and potential interventions.
Most content below is directly from RAND.
Though violence disproportionately impacts Black communities, “the focus on mental and physical health, economics, and school test scores is well-documented in all high-crime communities,” irrespective of race.
Despite the disproportionate victimization or offending among Black individuals, most individuals arrested, prosecuted, jailed, on parole or probation, or imprisoned are not Black, according to data from the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Geography and income significantly influence violent crime rates. There are many middle and upper-income Black communities where violent crime is uncommon.
Conversely, regions like Appalachia experience economic hardships, historical economic discrimination, high gun ownership, and significant substance abuse yet have low rates of stranger-to-stranger violent crime.
Traditional criminological disparities apply differently across communities. Factors like low income, demographics, location, or gun ownership do not necessarily indicate high crime rates.
Alaska has one of the highest crime rates per capita in the U.S., according to various surveys, yet the Black community comprises only 3% to 4% of the population.
The Context Of Violent Crime Is Necessary
Context is essential when considering violent crime. According to the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, violent crime rates for Blacks (23.4) and Whites (22.1) are similar. However, a higher percentage of violent crimes are reported to the police by Blacks than Whites. The total number of violent incidents is higher for Whites than Blacks. In 2023, the victimization rate at school for white students (24.3 per 1,000) exceeded that for black students (12.2 per 1,000).
Regarding income, those earning under $25,000 face a violent crime rate of 38.3, while for those earning between $100,000 to $199,000, the rate is 17.4. Nonetheless, some low-income communities do not face significant crime issues. I grew up in a working-class area in Baltimore decades ago, where crime was rare.
RAND’s research emphasizes firearm violence. As per the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) of the U.S. Department of Justice, “Firearm violence accounted for 10% of all violent crimes; approximately 6% involved a knife or sharp object like scissors, ice pick, or broken bottle; 4% involved blunt objects like a brick, bat, or bottle; and 5% involved unspecified ”other” objects used as weapons.” The latest report from the Bureau of Justice Statistics still cites 10 percent firearm use, though most homicides involve guns.
The data presented underscores the complexity of violent crime in the U.S. It’s not solely a matter of income, geography, firearms, race, or other factors. Each community faces unique challenges.
RAND’s examination of violence within Black communities is crucial; recent reviews addressing how gun violence leads to negative outcomes in these communities are lacking.
However, it’s important to recognize that several non-Black communities also contend with significant violent crime issues.
Additional Data
Additional statistics from the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics can be found at Arrests And Crime Victims By Race And Ethnicity.
Gun violence disproportionately affects Black communities. The broader effects of exposure to firearm violence on health and prosperity are still being studied.
This review of articles published over a decade (2015 to 2025) focuses on this impact, aiming to assist policymakers in health, education, economic, and criminal justice sectors, as well as violence prevention researchers and advocates, in prioritizing and implementing effective public safety strategies.
Background
Firearms claim the lives of a disproportionate number of Black individuals. Non-Hispanic Black people have the highest homicide rates among all racial and ethnic groups in the U.S., with guns being used in 80 percent of these killings.
It is estimated that one in every 38 Black men and one in every 287 Black women will die due to firearm violence.
Black individuals also endure nonfatal firearm assaults at a rate 20 times higher than their White counterparts, accounting for 61.5 percent of all such assaults.
Additionally, in 2020, firearm homicides involving Black victims were estimated to cost society 140.48 billion dollars.
A national study of Black individuals revealed that out of 3,015 surveyed adults, 41 percent had a friend or family member who had been shot, and 38 percent reported witnessing or hearing about a shooting in their area.
In low-income areas, exposure to community firearm violence can be even higher: Up to 80 percent of sampled Black residents reported hearing gunshots multiple times in their neighborhoods.
In the western and northeastern parts of the U.S., Black women are approximately two or seven times more likely, respectively, than White women in those regions to die from firearm violence.
The research examines how firearm violence impacts not only individuals or families but entire communities. Although there have been other reviews on the broad effects of gun violence, recent reviews specifically addressing how it adversely affects Black communities are not known.
This review covers literature from the last decade to shed light on how firearm violence influences various aspects of Black lives, including health, education, employment, and wealth.
Firearm Violence and Physical Health Outcomes
Understanding the impact of firearm injury exposure on chronic health is crucial, as chronic disease is the leading cause of death and disability in the U.S.
The concept of allostatic load, a measure of physiological dysregulation due to stress, is one mechanism by which exposure to gun violence might influence chronic disease.
Another area of interest is evaluating the impact of firearm injury on what is termed general health, often measured by composite health scores, combinations of physical symptoms, or the frequency of health-related visits. This literature points to negative effects from gun violence exposure on various global health outcomes and healthcare utilization.
Mortality, Premature Death, and Years of Life Lost
Firearm-related violence has long been a significant cause of premature death for Black people in the U.S. Black individuals experience a disproportionate number of potential years of life lost. This loss among younger generations in Black communities can inflict a specific form of trauma on survivors.
Those who survive their initial injuries face an elevated risk of being killed later. A study conducted in California found that two-thirds of long-term deaths among children who survived an initial firearm injury were due to homicide.
Recurrent Firearm Injury
Longitudinal studies reveal a significantly increased risk of repeated firearm injuries among individuals who survived an initial injury. A study in St. Louis found that most patients treated for an initial firearm injury were Black (87 percent), and recurrent injuries were more frequent among Black patients (96 percent).
Similar trends regarding the risk of reinjury have been observed in pediatric patients, especially Black youth. A study in Maryland hospitals discovered that although 3.1 percent of children with nonfatal firearm injuries suffered a second injury, 25 percent of those subsequent injuries were fatal.
Chronic Disease
Numerous cross-sectional studies report on chronic disease or related health behaviors, such as physical activity, among individuals and communities exposed to firearm violence or violent crime. Most studies link violent crime exposure to cardiovascular health.
Data suggests that firearm violence might be impacting maternal health both before and during pregnancy.
Neighborhood General Health
The study showing the strongest link between community gun violence and general health utilized a database of neighborhoods in 100 U.S. cities from 2014 to 2019. Gun violence was associated with poor overall neighborhood health in most study years, with consistent relationships found between gun violence and health behaviors and status.
The majority of available data indicates that survivors of nonfatal firearm injuries experience a range of physical health issues even after their initial injuries have healed, resulting in poorer physical health assessments and increased hospital service use compared to the general population or other trauma patients.
Physical Disability and Injury Complications
Community-level analysis is limited regarding the prevalence of disabilities from firearm injuries. Rates of functional disabilities were higher in neighborhoods with elevated violence rates, and nonfatal shootings were linked to increased community disability among young men aged 18–34.
Firearm Violence and Mental Health Outcomes
Five categories of mental health impacts from gun violence were examined specifically for Black communities: depression, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), other mental health conditions, mental health care treatment, and substance use.
Longitudinal studies of Black and non-Black individuals, rather than entire communities, provide the strongest evidence for mental health impacts from firearm violence. The literature consistently shows a clear link between exposure to gun violence and poor mental health.
Other Mental Health Conditions
Two community-level studies estimated a causal effect of gun violence on other mental health conditions. These studies, using data from 16,000 neighborhoods across 100 cities over five years (2014 to 2019), found that gun violence in the previous year was significantly linked to poorer general health status, poorer self-reported mental health (percentage of adult residents reporting 14 or more days in the past month of “not good” mental health), and insufficient sleep. These studies were not specific to Black communities.
Substance Use
These findings suggest that vulnerability to substance use may increase following exposure to gun violence for Black individuals and high-risk populations, such as pregnant women, though evidence remains inconclusive for Black communities.
Firearm Violence and Educational Declines
The review found strong evidence that community gun violence adversely affects academic outcomes and enrollment. However, none of the community studies focused specifically on Black communities, highlighting a gap in understanding the unique impact of violence on educational outcomes for communities already facing educational disparities.
The links between gun violence and educational attainment and enrollment are further supported by a larger body of literature examining the individual effects of firearm exposure, community violence, and crime.
Exposure to violence can lead to distracting or intrusive thoughts, heightened security concerns, and memory impairments, which can affect students’ ability to concentrate on schoolwork and their commutes. Community violence exposure can also result in individual psychological or behavioral issues (e.g., depression or substance use), impacting students’ focus, engagement, and aspirations for school.
Gun violence can have layered impacts on communities, depriving students in heavily affected areas of a fear-free education and negatively affecting future success.
Economics
A multicity analysis for the Urban Institute (2017) provides the strongest evidence of community economic costs from gun violence. Their findings revealed that surges in firearm violence negatively affected various economic health measures, including the establishment of new businesses or jobs, home value appreciation, new jobs, credit scores, and home ownership.
For instance, each additional gun homicide in a census tract was linked to 80 fewer jobs in Minneapolis, Minnesota; five fewer job opportunities in Oakland, California; two fewer retail establishments in Washington, D.C.; and a 1- to 3-percent decline in home ownership rates in Washington, D.C., and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, respectively, in the following year.
RAND’s Concluding Statement
Emerging research demonstrates links between gun violence and adverse life outcomes, yet further rigorous studies are necessary to determine the true costs of firearm violence in Black communities and the cost-effectiveness of interventions that successfully mitigate it.
Gaining a deeper understanding of the isolated impact of firearm violence on Black community growth and prosperity is crucial to altering the narrative of Black health, wealth, and advancement in the U.S.
Multitiered prevention and intervention efforts and policies, strategically implemented in communities affected by gun violence—many of which are Black communities—can enhance public health and well-being and address the enduring harms that have impacted Black communities for generations.
