President Donald Trump is attempting to enhance Republican prospects in the midterm elections by portraying Democrats as communists, forging a tentative peace with Iran, and highlighting decreasing gasoline prices.
However, some Republicans are urging him to deploy the over $350 million in his MAGA Inc. super PAC. “We didn’t leave our most powerful missiles on the ships when we were trying to crush Iran. Money is the political equivalent in politics. The electorate’s mindset on the economy is normally locked in stone by Labor Day after a summer of backyard conversations and paying for summer vacation gas,” stated a GOP lobbyist and donor, who, like others in this report, was granted anonymity. “Now is the time to sell the message – America 250, the world loves America, the Democrats are crazy left again, and we sealed the border.”
MAGA Inc. has not directly funded a race since March, when it spent $17,900.88 on Rep. Clay Fuller’s Georgia House campaign. Subsequently, it allocated $560,000 to MAGA KY, which supported a challenger to Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) who won, and covered other expenses such as consulting fees. These expenditures are detailed in FEC filings up to the end of May.
Polling consistently indicates significant disapproval for Trump and his policies, leading Republican candidates to urge Trump to take action to improve his ratings, particularly by addressing affordability issues. Trump’s decisions, such as endorsing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn, have complicated Republican chances in some races, notably the Texas GOP Senate primary, potentially benefiting Democrats.
Trump also declined to celebrate a housing bill that could address affordability, a major Republican weakness, in favor of pressuring Congress on an election integrity bill. Additionally, he pushed for an end to birthright citizenship after the Supreme Court upheld it. The Senate lacks the votes to pass these priorities.
Despite this, Trump has ample funds to invest in advertisements to mitigate these issues, contingent on his willingness to spend, according to some Republicans. “What makes you think they’re going to spend? We’ve been waiting for the cavalry,” remarked Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist and former Trump State Department appointee. “Every day matters about shaping sentiment and ideas, and when you have limited time, you should be attacking that early. So the notion of waiting is just inherently concerning… but even more of like, are you even actually going to be playing?”
Super PACs are intended to function independently, but candidates, including Trump, often exert significant influence over them. James Blair, Trump’s chief political director, indicated that MAGA Inc.’s funds would be used but did not disclose specifics regarding timing, amount, or targeted states. “I always like to say I won’t break any news for the president, I won’t specifically say what’s going to be spent. But I will put it to you this way, the president is going to spend substantial resources,” Blair mentioned on the Sean Spicer podcast. When asked about spending in July, Blair said “we’ll see,” suggesting action would be “very soon.”
MAGA Inc. spokesperson Alex Pfeiffer stated, “Despite Politico’s best efforts MAGA Inc. has not changed its policy of declining to disclose its strategy to the press.” A senior White House official noted that decisions regarding MAGA Inc. spending need not occur until after the convention, set to start Sept. 9. The official added, “may want plans right now, but we all know this is the president’s party and he’s going to make the strategic decisions on how to go about doing that. He’s on his timeline.”
Republican donors remained calm throughout much of the spring, but as temperatures in Washington soared to 100 degrees and July approached, some donors began questioning whether the money would be spent. “There’s this golden promise and the question is, when you get to the end of the rainbow, is the bucket empty or full?” a GOP donor remarked.
Republicans are counting on Trump to distribute MAGA Inc.’s millions nationwide to support vulnerable Senate and House Republicans. Without a clear plan, however, candidates and campaigns remain uncertain. “Especially to defend seats like Texas that they clearly put us in a tougher position than it would be with Cornyn,” a former Trump official commented.
One individual close to the White House described concerns about whether Trump will spend MAGA Inc.’s money as “well placed.” “I tend to believe he’s not going to spend it on other races and other folks, but I hope I’m wrong,” the person added.
Some suggest the White House is waiting for all primaries to conclude before spending. While states like Michigan and Wisconsin have yet to hold primaries, others like Texas and Georgia have moved to the general election phase. “I think in many ways the plan is still in formation,” said a source familiar with the White House’s thinking. “They’re going to be pressured to be as transparent about where the money’s going so I think a lot of those conversations will happen internally.”
Meanwhile, a recent Supreme Court decision struck down limits on coordinated spending between candidates and parties. Trump welcomed the ruling, which empowers parties to directly support preferred candidates, potentially diminishing super PACs’ influence, including MAGA Inc.
Even without the super PAC’s funds, Democrats face a substantial disadvantage in party fundraising this midterm cycle. Removing limits on coordinated spending could further benefit Republicans, who typically receive more funds from large donors. “If Republicans are to defy political gravity and avoid a result along the lines of 2018, they need all the resources they can get as soon as possible,” said Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.). “While Democrats are not in a robust financial position, Republicans will need to turn out their base and persuade swing voters against the current. That takes a lot of money.”
The Republican National Committee had $125.5 million cash on hand by the end of May – its highest ever month-end amount – and GOP candidates are still eyeing MAGA funds. This, along with other financial sources, reassures some Republicans. “I don’t imagine there’s a single key race in the country where there won’t be a gajillion dollars spent on both sides,” said Mark Graul, a Wisconsin-based GOP strategist. “So I don’t think lack of funding is going to be a big problem for the critical congressional races.”
The Senate Leadership Fund, aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, is confident Trump will eventually provide financial support to maintain the GOP majority in November. “There is no bigger beneficiary of the Republican House and Senate than President Trump,” said SLF executive director Alex Latcham.
At least one 2024 MAGA Inc. donor expressed continued trust in the team despite the lack of guidance. “Just relax, I’m sure they’ve got a plan. Until they don’t have a plan—they’ve told everyone, we have a plan,” the donor stated. “I don’t think the party is going to have a bad plan in terms of spending the money. You have to have trust.” The donor added, “I don’t know what they’re doing with the money, but unless I hear otherwise, they’re probably not in the Cayman Islands partying it out.”
Megan Messerly and Jessica Piper contributed to this report.
