Democrats aiming for two Senate seats in deeply Republican states are under mounting pressure from their party to make way for stronger independent candidates.
However, they remain steadfast in their campaigns, unless a divine sign tells them otherwise.
Alani Bankhead from Montana and Julian Beaudion from South Dakota informed POLITICO that they intend to stay in the race despite national and state Democratic calls for them to step down. Varioussurveys and superiorfundraising efforts suggest that independents Seth Bodnar and Brian Bengs have a more promising, albeit unclear, path to success in November.
Should these Democrats remain on the ballot, reclaiming these seats from Republicans in Mountain West regions, where Trump was dominant in 2024, seems nearly impossible.
Bankhead expressed her faith-driven stance: “If a divine sign like a lightning bolt from God struck me and said, ‘Alani, get out of the race,’ then sure,” she told POLITICO. Otherwise, she remains committed. Beaudion echoed this sentiment, stating, “To be clear, we are not considering dropping out of the race.”
Their persistence might jeopardize their party’s chance to regain Senate control in a challenging election cycle. Many Democratic factions agree that a crowded field diminishes any victory prospects. Bengs claims Beaudion’s candidacy puts his chances against GOP Sen. Mike Rounds at risk. Meanwhile, Bodnar believes he has a feasible chance regardless, especially if the Libertarian candidate siphons votes from Republican Kurt Alme.
The deadline for withdrawal in South Dakota is Tuesday, followed by Montana’s on Aug. 10. Democrats in Washington and their home states urge Bankhead and Beaudion to step down to potentially help the party gain a Senate majority, with hopes that a successful independent candidate might align with a future Democratic majority or at least not side with Republicans.
Matt Bennett, co-founder of the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way, stated, “The math is inescapable. If it’s impossible for a Democrat to win, it is vital that the Democrats step aside and give the independent at least a shot of beating the Republican. Beating the MAGA Republicans is priorities one, two and three. Who we beat them with is pretty far down the list.”
Democrats have seen some success in creating independent versus Republican matchups in Trump-won states. In Nebraska, the Democratic candidate withdrew, allowing independent Dan Osborn to run — though a pending court case could impact this. Idaho’s Democratic nominee also stepped aside for independent Todd Achilles.
Achilles commented on Democrat David Roth’s decision to withdraw, saying, “Recognizing that your campaign won’t break through is probably the hardest thing of all. I do appreciate what David did in Idaho.”
Bankhead and Beaudion remain confident in their chances, despite challenges. Bankhead plans to capitalize on anti-incumbency sentiment, while Beaudion highlights his connections with state voters.
“Nobody ever knows what’s actually going to happen in an election,” Bankhead noted. “The people decide on November 3.”
Yet, Democrats in Idaho and Nebraska concluded that their party’s reputation is so damaged in those states that the Democratic label offers no viable path to victory.
Pat Dennis, president of American Bridge 21st Century, an opposition-research firm, emphasized, “I am a professional partisan Democrat, and I have every incentive to be on the Democrat’s side here. But ultimately, the priority is to take the Senate majority away from Republicans. In some states, that path is very difficult to impossible for a Democrat. In those cases, it is both strategically and morally correct to take the path that is most likely to achieve the goal we’re going for.”
Faiz Shakir, a longtime adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders, acknowledged the potential for independents who are free from the Democratic brand’s baggage, saying, “Being someone who’s not associated with the two-party system right now helps you greatly in many parts of this country, particularly those that have much more rural and conservative tendencies. There’s frustration and anger with Trump, and there’s not as much of a love and appreciation for the Democratic Party.”
Shakir suggested that competitive races in these red areas — even if independents don’t win — could force Republicans to divert resources from battleground races to defend their positions.
He also warned that emphasizing independents’ fundraising and establishment support could tie them to the “donor class,” making them seem like a less favorable version of a Democrat. “You gotta give them the space to be both independent in mind and in spirit,” he advised. “The argument for them is truly that they are building a movement in the state that people are hungry for, and that in the support of those people, they’re finding resonance. And that would be the argument for a Democrat to step aside.”
Meanwhile, Republicans are attempting to equate independents with Democrats. They’re also trying to boost Democrats to hinder independents’ momentum: Trump criticized Bankhead on social media in July, ignoring Bodnar.
Joanna Rodriguez, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, stated, “Democrat-backed independents all support the same socialist policies and middle-class tax hikes that made Democrats toxic across the country. Republicans will defeat them in November.”
Calls for Beaudion and Bankhead to withdraw aren’t limited to Washington. Local Democrats in Montana and South Dakota have publicly suggested they end their campaigns. Nancy Keenan, who has endorsed Bodnar, opined in June that “there is not a viable path for a Democratic victory in this race.”
Bennett expressed that if Democrats don’t secure the Senate in November, the fault would be with Bankhead and Beaudion. “If we fumble away a majority because these no hope candidates are too vain to get out of the race, that’ll be a political calamity,” he said. “These people need to understand that they will become pariahs.”
Bankhead disagrees, stating, “I’m not swayed by it because I’m not here for power and money. It’s still the old, rich D.C. powerful political circles that are trying to keep more progressive candidates out of the fight so they can maintain the status quo.”
