The recent defeat of Rep. John Larson in Connecticut has raised alarms for Democratic incumbents facing challengers in upcoming New England primaries.
Among those at greatest risk is Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee.
Governor McKee, facing low approval ratings, is trailing behind Helena Foulkes, a former CVS executive with deep political roots, as her grandfather and uncle both served as senators from Connecticut. In their contentious primary rematch, McKee has been behind by up to 20 points in the polls. The race has not followed typical ideological or generational divisions and could be influenced by issues such as the partially closed Washington Bridge.
Additionally, McKee is struggling significantly behind Foulkes in campaign fundraising. Another concerning sign is his campaign’s decision to reduce television advertising.
In Massachusetts, Sen. Ed Markey seems to have a more secure position against his primary rival, Rep. Seth Moulton, in a race focusing on generational change, which is atypical for this election cycle.
Markey, a veteran politician, is also a progressive who coauthored the Green New Deal and enjoys the support of Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). He defeated his previous primary challenger, Joe Kennedy III, by 10 points in 2020.
On the other hand, Moulton is a moderate and former military member with a presidential campaign background, receiving endorsements from centrist colleagues. The VoteVets organization, known for supporting Democratic veterans and having invested over $900,000 in promoting Luke Bronin, who recently defeated Larson, is backing Moulton as well, though without any advertising yet. Emily Cherniack from New Politics, which supports Democratic veterans like Bronin and Moulton, sees similarities between these candidates, emphasizing their service-oriented leadership rather than seniority.
“Voters are ready for new leadership rooted in service and not seniority. I think there’s just an anti-establishment seniority vibe this cycle,” Cherniack stated. She noted that the Connecticut race “broke late, too. Luke was not ahead in the polling until recently. And I think Massachusetts as well is going to break very late.”
