“Disaffection with climate policies has two root causes: economic and cultural”
Alex Ramsay/Alamy
Recently, I discussed the controversy in my hometown of York, UK, following the council’s decision to increase parking fees to deter car usage in our heavily polluted streets. Eventually, the council softened its stance after facing public backlash and opted for a smaller increase in fees than initially proposed.
This scenario exemplifies a growing phenomenon known as “green backlash,” where opposition to pro-environmental policies is rising, particularly in affluent nations. This backlash is often associated with the increasing popularity of right-wing populist parties like Reform in the UK. These parties exploit environmental policies as electoral fodder, gaining traction by capitalizing on public discontent. Recent polls show Reform leading among UK voters in their election intentions.
Such trends spell trouble for climate action. Effective measures against climate change necessitate government involvement. However, the very introduction of these measures may inadvertently pave the way for the rise of anti-environmental parties. Research indicates that where right-wing populists govern in Europe, efforts to tackle greenhouse gas emissions and transition to renewable energy tend to slow significantly.
A recent investigative study published in Nature Climate Change by Valentina Bosetti and her team from Bocconi University sought to illuminate the causes of the green backlash and identify potential mitigation strategies.
Their findings reveal two primary causes of discontent surrounding climate policies: economic concerns and cultural factors. The economic aspect pertains to the financial burdens imposed by these policies, such as increased parking fees. Cultural grievances represent a growing erosion of trust towards politicians and scientific authorities. Both of these factors can undermine support for political entities advocating for environmental reforms and shift voters towards populist parties, primarily with right-wing agendas.
A particularly telling case study comes from Ontario, Canada, where local communities were stripped of their ability to block new wind power projects in 2009. This sparked the formation of over 50 opposition groups concerned about property values. Despite wind power’s general popularity, localized dissent contributed to significant electoral losses for the incumbent Ontario Liberal Party in the 2011 elections, notably in areas with active or proposed wind turbine installations. Similar instances of backlash against wind energy have been noted in Sweden and Germany as well.
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Researchers found that opposition to wind power melts away when subsidies are available
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Moreover, initiatives aimed at encouraging the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) have encountered resistance from conventional automotive workers. In the 2016 US elections, Donald Trump gained significant support in counties housing car part manufacturers, as workers expressed their apprehension regarding shifting to electric vehicles as a significant contributing factor to their votes for him.
This paints a rather bleak picture: governments striving to implement eco-friendly policies often find themselves facing substantial pushback, leading to diluted measures or electoral defeat, usually at the hands of parties that reject such policies or downplay their importance.
However, this doesn’t have to be the trajectory. While it might be challenging to change the minds of those drawn to right-wing populism for cultural reasons, economic discontent is manageable. Bosetti’s research indicates that opposition to wind farms dissipates when subsidies are offered, when tax revenues are earmarked for community projects, and when local employment opportunities are created. Addressing job loss fears through retraining programs or fair compensation can effectively mitigate these grievances—it really can be that straightforward.
Additionally, considerable yet often overlooked support exists for the initiatives driving a green transition. A US-based study queried adults about their views on reducing food waste, consuming less beef, installing solar panels and heat pumps, transitioning to electric vehicles, and purchasing carbon offsets. The results revealed strong support for all these measures. Strikingly, when respondents were asked how much they believed others endorsed these actions, there was a significant misalignment between perception and reality. This discrepancy presents another key takeaway for politicians: don’t shy away from promoting environmental policies due to misjudged public sentiment.
Back in York, with local elections slated for 2027, I foresee parking fees becoming a pivotal issue. My concern remains that the specter of green backlash may loom over our ballots.
Graham’s Week
Current Reads: The Pillars of the Earth by Ken Follett.
Current Viewings: I’m re-watching the BBC adaptation of Dracula on Netflix as I prepare for my upcoming holiday in Transylvania.
Current Work: Writing an article for the Christmas issue. Truly.
Graham Lawton is a staff writer at New Scientist and author of Mustn’t Grumble: The surprising science of everyday ailments. You can follow him @grahamlawton.
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