The sun has been the center of attention recently, with a stunning display of auroras captivating viewers across the United States. Last week, a powerful geomagnetic storm pushed these celestial displays as far south as Florida and Mexico, leaving spectators in awe of the glowing red skies.
Lisa Upton, a heliophysicist at the Southwest Research Institute, was particularly fascinated by the spectacle. As an expert in forecasting the solar cycle, Upton sheds light on what we can expect from the sun following these breathtaking displays. The sun’s activity follows an 11-year cycle, measured by the number of sunspots on its surface. The current cycle, known as Solar Cycle 25, officially peaked in October 2024. While sunspot numbers have slightly decreased since then, they remain relatively high.
Despite the peak of the cycle passing, Upton anticipates that solar activity may continue to surprise us. The declining phase of a solar cycle often brings about more activity than expected, with solar outbursts such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections becoming more frequent. These space weather events can have significant impacts on satellites, communication systems, and even the power grid.
The interaction between sunspots plays a crucial role in determining the likelihood of solar outbursts. Larger and more complex sunspots are more prone to eruptive activity, especially when they interact with each other. Upton explains that sunspots near the end of solar maximum, closer to the equator and each other, are more likely to produce flare-ups.
Active region 4274 (AR4274), the sunspot responsible for last week’s displays, has now rotated to the sun’s far side. However, scientists believe it may reappear in the future, potentially bringing more solar fireworks. Upton emphasizes that the solar cycle still holds surprises, with smaller upticks in activity expected within the next year or two.
Looking ahead, the solar cycle is predicted to continue winding down towards a solar minimum around 2030 or 2031. While the sun’s fireworks may take a hiatus, scientists like Upton remain excited about predicting the next cycle and observing how it unfolds. As Upton puts it, “The sun always loves to surprise us.”
The study of the sun and its activity is a fascinating field that continues to provide valuable insights into our star’s behavior. As we anticipate the next phase of the solar cycle, researchers like Upton are eager to unravel the mysteries of our sun and the space weather events it generates.
