Rising Concerns Over Political Violence in America
A significant number of Americans foresee an escalation in political violence, with many believing that the assassination of a political candidate could occur in the coming years. This widespread pessimism, albeit grim, represents a rare point of consensus in a nation deeply divided by political and cultural lines.
According to a recent survey conducted by POLITICO and Public First, 55 percent of Americans anticipate an increase in political violence. This alarming statistic highlights the impact of recent events—such as the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk earlier this year and the assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump in 2024—on the collective psyche of the nation.
This sentiment spans across various demographics, including gender, age, party affiliation, and educational background, although it appears that Democrats and older voters express heightened concern. Of particular worry is the fact that 24 percent of respondents feel that there are circumstances under which political violence is justified.
This belief does not divide neatly along partisan lines; rather, it shows a stark generational gap. Younger Americans, particularly those under 45, are significantly more inclined to justify violence, with over one in three supporting this view.
The survey also indicated that more than half of Americans believe it is very or somewhat likely that a political candidate will be assassinated within the next five years. This notion transcends party lines, as 51 percent of Trump voters and 53 percent of those who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris share this concern.
Robert Pape, a political science professor at the University of Chicago with over three decades of experience studying political violence, has shifted his rhetoric from suggesting we are on the brink of a violent era to declaring that we are already entrenched in one. “We’re not on the brink of it; we’re firmly in the grip of it,” Pape stated, characterizing the current atmosphere as one of “violent populism.”
The POLITICO poll, conducted in the wake of Kirk’s assassination, reflects a nation shaken by the escalating climate of violence, even as a majority—about 64 percent—still assert that political violence is never justified. Nevertheless, the fact that 24 percent endorse the idea of justified violence signals a troubling trend.
Pape succinctly notes, “What’s happening is public support for political violence is growing in the mainstream, it’s not a fringe thing, and the more it grows, the more it seems acceptable to volatile people.”
High-profile attacks and threats against politicians have become increasingly common, affecting members from both major parties at all levels of government. In addition to Kirk’s killing and the assassination attempts on Trump, there have been several notable incidents: the violent assault on former Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi‘s husband, a plot against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, an attempted kidnapping of Michigan’s Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and a firebombing incident at Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro’s residence.
In a particularly shocking instance this June, former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband were shot and killed in their home by an individual impersonating a police officer, an act that Governor Tim Walz (D) described as “politically motivated.” The alleged assailant has been indicted on federal murder charges, with the case pending.
Capitol Hill is not immune to this rising tide of violence. U.S. Capitol Police recorded nearly 10,000 “concerning statements” and threats against lawmakers, their families, and staff last year. Just weeks ago, a man was arrested for making a “credible death threat” against House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
Local officials are also facing increased hostility, as reported in a survey by CivicPulse and Princeton University’s Bridging Divides Initiative. Insults, harassment, and threats have become commonplace, which can undermine the democratic process. Shannon Hiller, executive director of the Princeton project, emphasized, “When people aren’t willing to run because of the climate of hostility, that impacts who’s ultimately representing us.”
While the majority of Americans foresee an uptick in violence, there are notable disparities in opinion across different demographic groups. For instance, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to believe that violence will rise, a difference that may reflect a prevailing sense of pessimism about the nation’s trajectory, particularly since Trump’s return to political prominence.
Those with negative perceptions of major institutions, including the presidency, are notably more inclined to predict an increase in violence. Among individuals with a very negative view of the presidency, a staggering 76 percent believe violence will rise, compared to just 15 percent who think it will decrease.
This data seems to suggest that the current era of extreme partisanship has significantly influenced American perceptions of violence. A notable 41 percent of Americans report feeling hesitant to express their political opinions in public, and this group is more likely to expect politically motivated violence—68 percent compared to 47 percent of those who feel comfortable expressing their views.
A September survey by the Pew Research Center asked respondents to identify reasons for the rise in political violence over the years. The most common responses were closely tied to partisanship: 28 percent of Democrats cited Trump’s rhetoric, the MAGA movement, or conservatives as contributing factors, while 16 percent of Republicans pointed to the rhetoric of Democrats and liberals.
In the aftermath of Kirk’s assassination, lawmakers from both parties urged citizens to engage with one another, even in disagreement. “We can always point the finger at the other side,” remarked Utah Governor Spencer Cox (R) during a press conference following Kirk’s alleged murder. “At some point, we have to find an off-ramp, or else it’s going to get much worse.”
However, the act of engaging in civil discourse has proven challenging in a deeply divided nation, as 41 percent of Americans report not having a close friend who votes for a different party. This stark reality underscores the growing chasm in American society, highlighting the urgent need for dialogue and understanding in order to avert further escalation.
