Brad Raffensperger navigates his party’s MAGA reality

VININGS, Ga. — Brad Raffensperger is in a battle to preserve his political career as the MAGA movement gains influence within the Georgia GOP.

The secretary of state gained national attention for standing up to President Donald Trump’s attempts to challenge the 2020 election results. Now, as he campaigns for governor, he is steering clear of overt anti-Trump positions.

Instead, Raffensperger is employing a traditional campaign strategy aimed at a classic Republican base. He is opting for modest events in contrast to his GOP rivals’ more extravagant rallies, focusing on fundamental issues rather than on election security. At an Atlanta-area rotary club meeting in April, he eagerly highlighted his business experience and commitment to capping property taxes, frequently emphasizing the word conservative in his speeches.

“I have my own lane, and I feel good where we are,” Raffensperger told POLITICO after an event. “It’s the lane about being a Christian conservative businessman who’s built a business from scratch.”

Raffensperger’s campaign represents a critical test for the non-MAGA faction within the party, seeking to maintain its ground in one of the nation’s key battleground states. Previously, he surpassed expectations by defeating a Trump-endorsed candidate in 2022 to retain his office. However, 2026 presents a new hurdle as Georgia’s GOP increasingly distances itself from its traditional small-government ideology in favor of populist right alignment.

Raffensperger remains confident about his path to victory. When questioned about Trump’s influence on the party, he deflected, stating, “I’m doing just fine. I’m going to be in the run-off.”

Despite this optimism, Raffensperger continues to trail in the governor’s race, consistently polling in third place behind Trump-supported Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and billionaire Rick Jackson, leading up to the May 19 primary. Many Republican strategists and state officials express skepticism about his chances.

“This is the party of Trump today — like it or not, it is — and I find it very difficult to see someone being able to be anti-Trump in a Republican primary and be successful,” commented Casey Cagle, a Republican who served as lieutenant governor from 2007 to 2019. Cagle, who supports Jones, notes that the party base has shifted significantly to the right.

Before February, Raffensperger appeared poised to garner enough support to prevent Jones from reaching the 50 percent needed to avoid a run-off. However, Jackson’s lavish spending and MAGA rhetoric have further pushed Raffensperger down in the polls.

Even if Raffensperger secures a run-off slot against either Jones or Jackson, his prospects remain slim, according to GOP strategist Jeremy Brand. Brand, who has worked with Gov. Brian Kemp-aligned committees and remains unattached in this race, believes the advantage in a run-off typically favors the more conservative candidate.

2020 election woes

Since opposing Trump, Raffensperger has faced challenges from within his own party.

A segment of the Georgia GOP attempted to block him from running on the Republican ticket. Local party leaders have also broken tradition by allowing the RNC to support Jones in the primary actively. The MAGA faction, which failed to unseat Raffensperger in 2022, is once again targeting his political career, along with others considered disloyal to Trump.

Attorney General Chris Carr, like Raffensperger, is also running for governor and previously defeated a Trump-backed opponent in 2022. However, he is polling even lower than Raffensperger. Gabriel Sterling, a former top aide to Raffensperger, is engaged in a contentious primary for secretary of state against a Democrat-turned-MAGA supporter and a GOP state representative.

The 2020 election remains a divisive issue in Georgia, as Trump continues to dispute his loss. Despite multiple recounts and legal challenges confirming Joe Biden’s victory, many voters and candidates remain skeptical of the results, isolating Raffensperger from the increasingly conservative Republican base.

“I voted for Trump. I wish he’d have won. I think he did win, I’m one of those people,” said Bruce Brooker, 72, outside a Jones campaign event in rural Atkinson County earlier this month.

An April POLITICO poll found that a significant portion of Republican voters remain doubtful: Nearly 40 percent believe the 2020 election was stolen, while another 25 percent harbor doubts about its legitimacy. Only 25 percent accept the election results as legitimate.

Raffensperger continues to defend his record and the integrity of Georgia’s elections, stating, “I’m really proud because we made elections more secure.” He highlights the changes implemented in 2021 to improve election processes, which faced criticism from Democrats and the MLB.

Nevertheless, several Georgia Republicans argue that Raffensperger is struggling to keep up as the party’s focus shifts away from his technocratic approach.

“Brad stands in stark conflict to a party that is at the activist level very much aligned with President Trump, when Raffensperger is anything but,” said a former longtime state GOP official, who requested anonymity to discuss party dynamics openly. “His candidacy will be and is a test to determine if that lane still exists in the Georgia Republican Party apparatus.”

Raffensperger’s path forward

On a recent afternoon, Raffensperger, dressed in a navy suit and red-striped tie, headlined the Vinings-Cumberland Rotary Club’s weekly meeting, mingling with voters before addressing the assembly. The state’s legislative session had concluded just a week earlier.

“What I thought I’d do is tell you where we are right now. We just finished up my last session,” he informed the audience, listing achievements such as streamlining professional licensing, securing a financial agreement for Ponzi scheme victims, and enhancing election systems to be “free, fair and fast.”

While this approach lacks the dramatic flair favored in Trump-era politics, it resonates with voters attending the event, held just outside Atlanta’s city limits in Cobb County.

Cobb County, once a Republican stronghold, has shifted toward the Democrats as the Trump-style GOP alienates suburban voters. Despite voting for Kamala Harris in 2024, the county still hosts many business-oriented Republicans uninterested in Trump. Marco Rubio won the county over Trump in the 2016 GOP primaries, and Nikki Haley performed significantly better in the county compared to her statewide results in 2024. Raffensperger is targeting these voters while allowing Jones and Jackson to vie for the MAGA supporters.

Jason Shepherd, the former Cobb County Republican chair, noted that Raffensperger’s low-key civic events symbolize the party’s business-focused past. This contrasts sharply with the attention-grabbing rallies that characterize Trump’s influence over Republican politics.

Raffensperger’s understated approach has worked for him before when he defeated a 2022 primary challenge from Jody Hice, who had Trump’s backing. However, the current scenario differs as Trump has reasserted his control over the party, and Raffensperger faces two MAGA candidates vying for the same base. Additionally, he is at a financial disadvantage: his $4 million campaign budget pales in comparison to Jackson’s $61 million and Jones’ $26 million, as reported by AdImpact.

The Jones and Carr campaigns quickly dismissed any notion that Raffensperger could secure a run-off and eventual victory. A spokesperson for Jackson did not comment.

If Raffensperger were to lose the primary, it would mark another setback for the old-school GOP resisting MAGA. Yet, his steadfast belief in his political path and version of the Republican Party remains a testament to his persistence.

“Brad Raffensperger never really stopped from 2022 on,” said Sterling, a Raffensperger ally running for secretary of state, who has also faced criticism for not overturning election results. “He could have set up a foundation, gone around the country and just talked about democracy and he would have been applauded. Instead he chose to go into the battle and fight.”