The NCAA Tournament’s 32-game feast across Thursday and Friday is one of the most highly anticipated TV stretches of the sports year. You should watch as many games as you can, but if you need to prioritize, here are the “can’t-miss” ones to watch, informed by full-bracket predictions from The Athletic’s Brendan Marks, C.J. Moore, and Lindsay Schnell. — Dan Shanoff
THURSDAY
The best game
(6) Missouri at (11) Drake
7:35 p.m. ET, truTV
Inexplicably, the best game of the first round is shunted to truTV, which is known mostly for the perennial March query: “How do I find truTV?” Missouri made it through the gauntlet of the SEC schedule, but Drake — led by a former DII coaching legend and a couple of up-transfers he brought with him — has the official “Team Nobody Wants To Play” label. Mizzou loves to push the pace; Drake cranks the pace down about as low as it can go. A fascinating game on every level.
C.J. Moore: Drake will be a trendy upset pick, and for good reason. The Bulldogs are 3-0 against high-major teams this year, Ben McCollum is one of the best coaches in college basketball, and he has Bennett Stirtz, whom a rival Missouri Valley coach recently told me is the best guard in the country. The Tigers rely on turnovers and prefer to play fast; McCollum’s teams always control the tempo. He also hasn’t lost in the first round of an NCAA Tournament since 2018.
Making things even more complicated, the other two games in that early-evening Thursday block are outstanding: No. 13 seed Yale in an Upset Special vs. No. 4 seed Texas A&M (7:25 p.m. ET, TBS) and a Hall of Fame coaching matchup between John Calipari (No. 10 seed Arkansas) and Bill Self (No. 7 seed Kansas) at 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS. (“Multi-view” FTW!)
Blow off work for…
(4) Purdue vs. (13) High Point
12:40 p.m. ET, truTV
Another possible Upset Special! High Point will have most of America saying “Who?” But also: Who cares, upsets are amazing! If High Point keeps it close (which it can through its high-octane offense and personnel tailor-made to match up well with Purdue), this will be the game your group chat is texting about.
Brendan Marks: Purdue has lost six of its past nine games, with its interior defense being exposed. Over those last nine games? A horrid 196th nationally in adjusted efficiency, per Torvik; opponents are making 63.3 percent of their 2s during that stretch, which is second worst in all of DI. No, thank you! High Point is dancing for the first time in program history because of Alan Huss’ top-25 offense, which just so happens to be the ninth-best 2-point shooting team in the field. Smells like a mismatch. High Point is the easiest upset pick in the region.
Amazing back-to-back-to-back
(5) Clemson vs. (12) McNeese
3:15 p.m. ET, truTV
(6) BYU vs. (11) VCU
4:05 p.m. ET, TNT
(8) Gonzaga vs. (9) Georgia
4:35 p.m. ET, TBS
Settle in, because the late-afternoon window is the best string of games of the entire first round.
- Clemson checks in as the 12th-most likely team to win it all; its tournament could end Thursday afternoon against Will Wade’s fearless McNeese squad.
- BYU’s “size, depth and offensive execution” versus VCU’s “guard play and defensive prowess” (per our Bracket Big Board). If styles make fights, this is a phenomenal fight.
- Ranked No. 9 in the country by the essential KenPom, Gonzaga nonetheless got stuck with a No. 8 seed; Georgia is under pressure, as the first SEC team to play/justify the league’s record-smashing 14 NCAA spots.
Worth staying up late
(5) Michigan vs. (12) UC San Diego
10 p.m. ET, TBSPart of the fun of these first few days of the tournament is sitting glued to the TV after midnight, catching an upset by a team few know over a school everyone knows, then enjoying the bleary-eyed feeling when the morning alarm goes off, knowing you caught a classic. Meanwhile: Every “12-5” game is self-recommending for its potential to be an upset (or “upset,” because at this point, a No. 12 seed beating a No. 5 seed is considered normal). UC San Diego has every characteristic of the classic 12-seed (this feature on the team is your must-read); Michigan is coming off a Big Ten Tournament championship run.
Moore: Michigan-UC San Diego might be one of the most interesting matchups of the Round of 64. Michigan’s dread all season has been turnovers, and the Tritons rank second in Division I in defensive turnover rate. The only issue for UC San Diego is its small frontcourt. Michigan is huge up front with 7-footers Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin.
FRIDAY
The best game
(4) Maryland vs. (13) Grand Canyon
4:35 p.m. ET, TBSLindsay Schnell, picking Grand Canyon: This choice is nothing personal against Maryland. It’s because GCU is one of the best and most consistent mid-major programs in the country (this is the Antelopes’ fourth NCAA appearance in the past five years; they upset Saint Mary’s last year).
Blow off work for…
(5) Memphis vs. (12) Colorado State
2 p.m. ET, TBSMoore: Colorado State, winner of 10 in a row, is one of the hottest teams in the country and has one of the best wings in the country in Nique Clifford. His matchup with PJ Haggerty will be a fun one. The Rams could end up betting favorites, and I like them because Rashaan Mbemba has the strength to match up with Memphis big man Dain Dainja.
Then stick around for…
(7) Saint Mary’s vs. (10) Vanderbilt
3:15 p.m. ET, truTVSchnell, backing Saint Mary’s: I’ll take Saint Mary’s to beat Vanderbilt in the first round and then upset Alabama in the second round. The Gaels are a tough, talented, and most importantly, veteran squad. They’re led by one of my favorite players: crafty point guard Augustas Marciulionis.
Worth staying up late
(5) Oregon vs. (12) Liberty
10:10 p.m. ET, truTVMoore: Oregon-Liberty is one of the few spots where I went with an upset. Like Drake, Liberty can control the pace and is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country. Oregon prefers to play with pace. It’s not usually a good strategy to bet against Ducks coach Dana Altman in March, but Ritchie McKay is one of the mid-major level’s best coaches, and this is the best team he’s taken to the tournament since 2019 when Liberty upset Mississippi State in the first round.
