Crude Traders Split on Whether the Glut Has Arrived

For several months, discussions surrounding an impending oil surplus have dominated the market landscape. Recently, Bloomberg indicated that the first hints of oversupply might be surfacing, with millions of barrels of Middle Eastern crude remaining unsold in the latest spot market cycle. However, some experts contend that fears of a glut may be unfounded, especially with winter approaching and the accompanying demand for heating supplies.

The last spot market cycle saw between 6 million and 12 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude go unsold, as reported by Bloomberg on Thursday, referencing traders’ insights. This situation might point to the much-anticipated oversupply, particularly as Indian and Chinese buyers apparently hesitated to purchase the available cargoes.

Furthermore, the report highlighted a flattening futures curve for the Abu Dhabi Murban blend, which previously exhibited a bullish trend but has recently softened, indicating either a potential oversupply or decreased demand for that specific type of crude. Moreover, refiners are anticipating a price hike from Saudi Arabia for crude supplied to Asia, which contradicts the notion of a glut and suggests robust demand for oil.

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Additionally, the backwardation observed in the November-December crude spread at the close of September stood at $1 per barrel, as noted by Price Futures Group’s Phil Flynn in his report cited by Investing.com, countering widespread forecasts for an imminent oil surplus.

Separately, Flynn described the current scenario as being in “oil purgatory,” explaining that “Oil prices are confined within a purgatory-like trading band that OPEC appears intent on maintaining—high enough to ensure profitability, yet low enough to pressure US shale producers.”

He also noted, “Rumors of increased OPEC production were swiftly denied by the organization, but the timing of such leaks raises questions about their intent, especially at price points that could potentially revive US shale.”

Vanda Insights’ Vandana Hari remarked that the market is not “perceiving the glut, and it’s not manifesting in the physical market … it’s an overstatement,” adding that, “Should China persist in stockpiling, which I anticipate, it indicates demand growth and presents a bullish outlook.” Hari also highlighted the seasonal increase in fuel oil demand as the Northern Hemisphere embarks on the heating season.

In addition, recent restrictions imposed by Russia on fuel exports further challenge the glut narrative. Moscow announced an extension of its gasoline export ban until the year’s end and reiterated restrictions on diesel exports, as Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak previously indicated. These measures are perceived as a response to attacks on Russian refineries and suggest a future tightening of fuel supply in global markets.