Gas prices were a staple of GOP ads in 2024. Now it’s Democrats’ turn.

In 2024, Republicans heavily criticized Democrats over rising gas prices. Now, with prices climbing again, the political advantage has shifted.

According to a POLITICO analysis of AdImpact’s ad transcripts, Republicans ran 87 percent of ads mentioning gas prices in the 2024 election cycle for House and Senate races. This year, however, about two-thirds of such ads are being run by Democratic candidates or groups. Republicans, who once capitalized on the issue, have now largely fallen silent amidst voter dissatisfaction over high prices and President Donald Trump’s conflict in Iran. Mentions of gas prices have noticeably decreased in Republican emails and social media posts.

This shift in messaging underscores a dramatic change in political dynamics within two years. The GOP, now in power, faces the persistent challenge of affordability, a significant concern for voters nationwide. When former President Joe Biden was in office, high gas prices were a major political hurdle for Democrats. Now, Democrats are poised to blame the current administration and its support for the Iran conflict for the even higher prices.

Former Iowa state Rep. Christina Bohannan, challenging GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in a House race rematch, remarked, “People are really struggling. I’ve been hearing about it on the campaign trail a lot,” emphasizing the unpopularity of the war in Iran as the cause for rising gas and diesel prices. Bohannan noted the shift in accountability, stating, “People are going to hold accountable the government who is in power, and rightly so. And right now, that is Mariannette Miller-Meeks and the Republicans.” Miller-Meeks’ campaign did not provide a comment.

The current average gas price is slightly above $4 per gallon, which is lower than the peak of over $5 per gallon in June 2022 during Biden’s presidency, yet higher than it has ever been at this time of year, according to GasBuddy data.

The Iran war has significantly driven up pump prices. Iran’s attacks on tankers moving Middle Eastern crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz have caused a rise in oil prices. Although these prices are not as high as some analysts predicted, partly due to Trump’s unpredictable timing for ending the war, they are about $20-a-barrel higher than before the conflict.

Countries heavily reliant on Middle Eastern fuel turned to the United States to replace their supply after Iran damaged regional refineries. This shift caused a surge in U.S. fuel exports, maintaining gasoline prices over a dollar higher than pre-war levels.

Energy analysts predict a potential price spike after the midterms if Trump, post-election, feels less constrained from escalating the conflict with Iran. “The US midterms remain a useful marker for Iranian behavior,” noted analysts from BCA Research. “Before the elections, Iran has more room to agitate because President Trump has incentives to prevent oil prices and the conflict from worsening.”

At a recent rally on Long Island, Trump stated he would “never apologize” for the recent gas price increases, citing the need to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Democrats view Trump’s rhetoric as an opportunity to link GOP incumbents to both high prices and the ongoing war.

In Arizona’s 6th District, a key House battleground, GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani previously ran an ad lamenting high gas, food, and medicine costs. This year, gas prices are absent from his ads, which instead target Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza on crime and link her to defunding the police, while highlighting his efforts to fund border patrol and eliminate taxes on tips. Ciscomani’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

Meanwhile, Democrats are targeting Ciscomani over gas prices. A Democratic dark-money group accused Ciscomani of voting to raise gas prices, citing his votes against restricting Trump’s war powers regarding Iran. Mendoza stated, “Every time people go to the grocery store or the gas pump, or pay their electric or utility bill, they are reminded of how Ciscomani has been absolutely spineless in standing up to Trump.”

Beyond television ads, Republicans have less frequently mentioned gas prices on social media since March, when prices surged following Trump’s initial attacks on Iran, according to a POLITICO review of posts on the platform X.

This year marks the first since 2020 where Democratic members of Congress have mentioned gas in their official email newsletters more often than Republicans, as per data from DCInbox, which tracks members’ newsletters.

Some Republicans argue that addressing gas prices remains crucial, given the ongoing affordability crisis. Americans for Prosperity Action, a conservative super PAC active in several House and Senate races, has included energy prices in its ads. Bill Riggs, a spokesperson, remarked that their canvassers have found that criticisms of democratic socialists’ anti-energy policies resonate with voters, but Republicans must also propose their own solutions. “Contrast really is key — we don’t just criticize the DSA’s platform for the legitimate fact it’s going to make energy scarce and prices go up, we also connect voters to a credible plan to bring costs down,” Riggs said. “AFP Action’s candidates stand for energy abundance and lower costs, and when we walk swing voters and base Republicans through that contrast at the doors, they move our way.”

This summer in Ohio, the group ran an ad admitting “gas prices are too high” but argued that electing Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown would worsen the situation, while GOP Sen. Jon Husted would “stop today’s pain from becoming permanent.”

In response, Brown’s campaign pointed to the Iran war’s impact on costs. “Ohioans are already being crushed by rising costs, and Jon Husted has voted 13 times to continue the reckless war in Iran that’s caused gas and diesel prices to spike,” campaign spokesperson Lauren Chou said. “Husted should be focused on lowering costs and easing the economic burden for working families, not backing an endless war in the Middle East that has already cost us billions of dollars.”

Ben Lefebvre contributed to this report.