The recent decision by President Donald Trump to support Israel in its military campaign against Iran has sent shockwaves through Gulf capitals. Just weeks ago, Gulf leaders warmly welcomed Trump and urged him to prioritize diplomacy with Tehran to avoid a potential regional conflict that could jeopardize their security and stability.
Iran has long been a key rival to the Gulf’s largest economies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Despite historic tensions, the Gulf nations have made efforts to build bridges with Iran in recent years. The prospect of a new conflict in the Middle East has left the oil-rich Gulf states nervous, as they are within reach of Iran’s missiles and host key US military bases.
The Gulf leaders fear that a prolonged conflict could destabilize Iran or push its rulers to seek nuclear weapons, leaving them to deal with the aftermath of a war they did not initiate. Memories of the chaos caused by the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, which empowered Iran and led to the rise of ISIS, loom large in the minds of Gulf analysts.
The initial reaction to the US strikes in the region was one of anxiety and apprehension. Citizens expressed shock and concern, with social media platforms abuzz with urgent discussions about the escalating situation. In Kuwait, there was a spectrum of reactions, from denial to panic, while Bahrain took precautionary measures to protect its citizens.
The Gulf’s focus on economic development has been overshadowed by Israel’s military operations across the region, sparking concerns among Gulf analysts about Israel’s broader ambitions. The region’s leaders have condemned Israel’s offensive on Iran and called for a return to dialogue between Iran and the US.
Despite their strained relationship with Iran, Gulf powerhouses Saudi Arabia and the UAE have advised against US attacks on Iran from their shores, fearing further escalation and retaliation from Iran. The Gulf states have sought rapprochement with Tehran in recent years, leading to improved relations.
While the Gulf states have limited diplomatic sway in the current crisis, they are prepared for any potential escalation and have kept the offer of mediation on the table. Despite efforts to strengthen ties with the US, Gulf countries have found themselves with little influence on Trump’s decisions.
Overall, Gulf-US relations remain strong, with Gulf countries carefully navigating their responses to Trump’s intervention. Oman, a key mediator in US-Iran nuclear talks, was the only Gulf state to explicitly criticize the strikes as “illegal.” The Gulf states continue to monitor the situation closely and stand ready to address any further developments in the region.
