The upcoming 2024 presidential election will usher in a new era of heightened nuclear geopolitics for the next President of the United States. With looming deadlines on nuclear deals with Russia and Iran, as well as decisions on a $2-trillion weapons-modernization effort, the stakes are higher than ever.
According to national security expert Sharon Weiner, the lack of focus on nuclear weapons in the current election cycle is concerning, especially given the potential for instability in the commander in chief role and ongoing threats from countries like Russia. Despite this lack of emphasis, experts like Daryl G. Kimball believe that past actions by previous administrations can provide insights into what to expect in terms of nuclear weapons policy moving forward.
The United States, along with Russia, holds the majority of the world’s nuclear weapons, with approximately 5,000 deployed for military use. Key treaty deadlines, such as the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) with Russia and the international agreement with Iran, are set to expire in the coming years, necessitating swift action from the incoming administration to prevent a renewed arms race or nuclear proliferation.
If Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election, she will inherit President Joe Biden’s nuclear policies, which have focused on nuclear diplomacy while also pursuing a costly modernization of U.S. nuclear arms. However, challenges such as rising costs and questions about the necessity of these efforts persist, casting doubt on the future of U.S. nuclear strategy.
Former President Donald Trump’s approach to nuclear policy centered on aggressive expansion of the U.S. nuclear arsenal, a stance echoed in the Project 2025 blueprint proposed by his administration. Despite disavowing this plan, Trump’s track record with nuclear negotiations, particularly with countries like North Korea, has raised concerns about his temperament and ability to handle nuclear crises effectively.
As the election approaches, questions about how the next president will navigate nuclear diplomacy, manage nuclear threats from adversaries, and address the escalating arms race loom large. The future of U.S. nuclear policy hinges on the decisions made by the incoming administration, with far-reaching implications for global security and stability.
