Statistics New Zealand data reveals that in February, there were 1,505 more filled jobs compared to the same period last year, although economists caution that this may represent a peak for the time being.
Last month, the total number of filled jobs stood at 2.35 million.
Employment in public administration and safety increased by 3.2% from the previous year, with healthcare and social assistance up by 1.7%, and education and training rising by 1.2%.
Conversely, the construction sector saw a decrease of 2.1%, and manufacturing declined by 1.6%.
Combined, the construction and manufacturing sectors shed nearly 8,000 jobs over the year.
Regionally, Canterbury experienced the most significant growth, with a 1.5% increase in jobs year-on-year. In contrast, Auckland saw a 0.4% decline, and Wellington experienced a 0.9% drop. Otago’s job numbers grew by 1.4%, and Waikato’s by 0.9%.
According to Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold, the latest figures represent the highest monthly filled jobs since November.
He noted that this might be the peak for now.
“We currently forecast very modest positive growth in employment from here until Q3 when we expect decent levels of growth to resume as the Iran War is expected to have died down by then. Hence we are likely very close to peak filled jobs for now but much depends on how the Iran war and the response from business evolves.”
BNZ chief economist Mike Jones expressed similar uncertainty about future prospects.
“Hiring plans may well be impacted. Firms’ intentions to hire for the coming 12 months had climbed to levels well above average, but these plans look set to be tested now that growth expectations are coming under pressure, costs rising aggressively and uncertainty about the outlook in the ascendancy.
“The key question is whether this shock causes firms to rein in hiring plans, or whether it’s of a magnitude that forces them to reduce staffing numbers. I think, at this stage, it’s more likely aggregate employment slows down rather than stalls or contracts. But, as with many aspects of the outlook, much depends on how long this shock goes on for.
“Prospects for a recovery in the labour market this year do appear to have dimmed, with any decline in the unemployment rate looking more like a story for next year.”
Infometrics suggests that any signs of economic recovery are likely to be delayed.
“The immediate effects are being felt by consumers and businesses at the pump. The secondary effects on business overheads, and the extent to which they will be pushed through to consumer prices, will take longer to materialise. Under these conditions, any confidence employers were starting to feel to take on additional staff will most likely have been undermined.”
