The far right is making efforts to unseat Sen. Lindsey Graham, prompting him to spend substantial amounts to maintain his position.
According to an analysis by AdImpact, Graham’s campaign and supportive outside groups have invested over $18 million ahead of the upcoming Tuesday primary. This significant expenditure in the small state highlights Graham’s serious approach to the primary challenge posed by businessman Mark Lynch, as he aims to prevent a runoff election.
Graham’s supporters include a pro-cryptocurrency organization, an outside group aligned with GOP Senate leadership, and a super PAC with undisclosed donors, all contributing millions to his campaign.
Lynch, meanwhile, has primarily funded his campaign himself, contributing $5 million from his retirement savings. He is positioning himself to the right of Graham, challenging whether the “America First” GOP base questions President Donald Trump’s interventionist actions, despite their continued support. Lynch criticizes Graham’s extensive experience in Washington, highlighting his past support for amnesty and interventionist foreign policy, including support for Trump’s actions in Iran. His campaign ads include clips of Graham calling Trump a “bigot” during his 2016 presidential campaign and praising former President Joe Biden.
Lynch has gained support from notable MAGA Republican critics of the president, such as former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who argues the GOP has strayed from Trump’s “America First” ideals.
Public polling shows Graham either slightly above or just below the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff. Lynch is one of five Republicans on the ballot, potentially diluting Graham’s vote share.
The large financial commitment against a relatively unknown challenger has been notable as the primary approaches.
“Lindsey is well-funded. You might as well make sure you’ve got all the i’s dotted and all the t’s crossed to make sure that you win without a runoff,” said Tyson Grinstead, Richland County GOP chair and former Graham campaign adviser. “For Lindsey, I think it’s not outside the norm, especially in Lindsey dollars.”
This contest between the seasoned senator and the businessman from Upstate South Carolina is a test of what “America First” signifies and who can lay claim to it within the Republican Party: allies of the president like Graham, or those adhering to MAGA’s foundational values, like Lynch.
Anti-interventionism was pivotal in Trump’s rise, helping him defeat more hawkish Republicans, including Graham, in 2016. Yet, over 100 days into a conflict with Iran, Trump aligns with Graham’s hardline foreign policy, reversing his promise to avoid foreign wars.
While Trump supports Graham’s reelection, several anti-interventionist Republicans endorse Lynch, portraying Graham as a symbol of establishment military intervention support.
Greene, once a Trump ally who diverged over the Epstein files and Iran war, endorsed Lynch while criticizing Graham as an “America Last warmonger.” Joe Kent, who resigned from a Trump administration role over the Iran conflict, endorsed Lynch similarly.
“All the double dealing, all the lies, all the selling out the country to foreign powers — now [Graham] faces the humiliation of being forced into a runoff,” Steve Bannon, Trump’s former strategist, told POLITICO.
Graham remains a strong favorite to retain his seat, having been reelected thrice since 2002 despite right-wing challenges. He is a prominent figure in both state and national Republican circles, maintaining a fluctuating yet close relationship with Trump.
Whether he wins outright or continues campaigning for two weeks, Graham is anticipated to defeat Lynch. Yet, the strength of Lynch’s challenge indicates a growing rift between MAGA supporters and the Republican establishment reshaped by Trump.
“I take everything seriously when it comes to representing the people of South Carolina, including my primary,” Graham said to POLITICO.
Graham, a notable fundraiser, has the largest war chest of any Republican this cycle, with over $4 million on hand as of late May, despite an expected easy general election. He’s familiar with spending heavily to counter primary threats, having spent $8.5 million in 2014 and nearly $100 million in 2020 to secure victories.
Crucially in South Carolina, Graham enjoys the president’s backing, despite emerging support issues in his home state and their sporadic disagreements.
Trump supported Graham with a tele-rally before Election Day.
“He’s outstanding. He’s been at my side for a long time. We fought each other initially a long time ago,” Trump said. “But after that fight was over, we were best of friends, and he’s helped me as much as anybody in the Senate.”
Urging Republicans to support Graham, Trump acknowledged Lynch’s challenge. “We don’t want any surprises, we don’t want any bad things to happen. Elections, you never know, so we have to be very careful,” he said.
Lynch’s campaign did not make him available for comment. His spokesperson, Noel Fritsch, stated that forcing Graham into a runoff would be “a huge shock to the system” in South Carolina, given Graham’s historical electoral success.
Lynch’s campaign platform focuses on domestic spending over foreign investments, criticizing Graham’s “Washington-first” record. He has notably criticized Graham for supporting Trump’s Iran policy.
Despite Lynch’s alignment with Trump’s MAGA movement, Fritsch dismissed concerns over the president’s endorsement of Graham being decisive in the primary.
“Everybody that we’re talking to is like, ‘what’s going on with his endorsements?’ There’s a couple of folks out there who are kind of like, ‘I’ll do whatever Trump says,’ but most of the folks are just like, ‘What is going on? This is not the Trump that we knew or voted for over and over again,’ Which, by the way, is what Mr. Mark Lynch did.”
Lynch faces a tough challenge against a well-funded incumbent with strong Republican Party ties in Columbia and Washington. Graham’s campaign alone has spent $13 million on ads, including negative ads targeting Lynch’s past drug use and 1984 cocaine trafficking charges.
“Mark’s been very open about the fact that in the early 80s … he had some issues with substance abuse, specifically cocaine. He’s been a teetotaling, stone-cold sober, Southern Baptist guy for over four decades since then,” Fritsch said.
Observers note that others have attempted similar primary challenges against Graham without success.
“Lindsey has only lost one county in any primary race in his career for the Senate, and that was — gosh, that was 2008,” said Grinstead, the Richland GOP chair.
“The same people who are always against Lindsey are against Lindsey this time,” he added. “I’m not seeing a lot of new folks who are on the conservative side of the grassroots establishment starting to leave Lindsey.”
Andrew Howard and William Steakin contributed to this report.
