DETROIT — As a professional driver maneuvered a shiny new Ford Bronco Sport up a steep ridge, Mallory McMorrow found herself wedged in the back seat, gripping the overhead roll bar for dear life.
The course at the Detroit Auto Show is not just a showcase of the Bronco’s off-road prowess; it’s also designed to thrill and terrify its adventurous passengers. For McMorrow, however, this ride served as a metaphor for her precarious journey in the race for Michigan’s open Senate seat.
“It’s a teeter-totter, man,” McMorrow remarked to POLITICO after surviving a literal giant teeter-totter in the Bronco. “The outcome could go any direction.”
McMorrow is embroiled in a nail-biting three-way primary against Rep. Haley Stevens and physician Abdul El-Sayed. This contest has become a defining moment for the Democratic Party’s future and its strategy for winning critical swing-state elections that could determine control of the Senate.
In recent days, the three candidates have engaged in a whirlwind of debates, ranging from whether to wholeheartedly endorse Medicare for All to how aggressively Democrats should confront ICE. The primary has morphed into a microcosm of the broader struggles facing Democrats: What stance should they take on the Israel-Palestine conflict? Should they refresh their aging leadership? What does electability even mean in today’s political landscape? Should they lean into the attention economy or stick to conventional campaigning?
El-Sayed has positioned himself on the far left, advocating for bold policies that align with his book, “Medicare For All: A Citizen’s Guide,” and earning the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders. Stevens, on the other hand, appeals to the centrist establishment, advocating more moderate positions. McMorrow finds herself straddling the ideological divide, trying to resonate with voters from both sides.
But this primary fight to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) is not merely about ideological purity; it’s a question of whether Democrats can secure a foothold in the Senate at all.
“It’s already a long shot, but it’s a doable thing — but not without Michigan,” cautioned David Axelrod, a seasoned adviser to former President Barack Obama.
Axelrod has labeled this contest as the “most fascinating and consequential primary” in the nation.
Democratic leaders, both in Michigan and Washington, are increasingly anxious that the intense competition, which won’t conclude until the August primary, may deepen ideological divides and leave the eventual nominee vulnerable against former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.).
“We’re accustomed to lengthy primaries,” noted Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) in an interview with POLITICO. “While they’re not popular, we know how to navigate them. I don’t believe it’s insurmountable.”
For the present, the race remains wide open.
Most public polls indicate a tight three-way race, with either Stevens or McMorrow slightly ahead depending on the survey findings. In the general election matchups, Stevens appears to edge out Rogers, with McMorrow trailing closely behind and El-Sayed further back.
Stevens currently enjoys a fundraising advantage. The latest Federal Election Commission reports reveal she raised $2.1 million in the last quarter and has $3 million on hand. Both McMorrow and El-Sayed garnered around $1.75 million, each possessing just under $2 million in available funds. Rogers has raised nearly $2 million, with close to $3.5 million in cash.
Part of the reason for the tight polling is that voter engagement has yet to ignite. Campaigns anticipate more differentiation once paid media ramps up, with El-Sayed being the only candidate to have launched a statewide advertisement thus far.
“Only the most politically engaged have started to tune in,” remarked Slotkin.
Michigan Democrats are also concerned about how the primary might impact the party’s broader efforts to maintain control of term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s office and regain legislative power.
With a 60 percent approval rating, Whitmer faces pressure from party members to endorse either Stevens or McMorrow early in the race to streamline the field. A senior Michigan Democratic official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, expressed concern that without such a move, “we could see real losses.”
Whitmer and El-Sayed previously competed in a heated 2018 gubernatorial primary, and there are indications that tensions linger.
A spokesperson for Whitmer declined to comment.
A clash of ideologies
The candidates exhibit stark ideological differences on a range of significant issues, including health care, the Israel-Palestine conflict, and their acceptance of corporate PAC contributions.
Following the deaths of two individuals at the hands of federal immigration agents in Minneapolis, the candidates’ differing approaches to ICE have intensified the primary battle.
While McMorrow and Stevens mingled at the Detroit Auto Show and union halls during the MLK holiday, El-Sayed took to Minneapolis to film street interviews reminiscent of New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s viral campaign videos. He asserted that he aimed to “understand what it looks like when an arm of the government lays siege to a city in America.” (El-Sayed also managed to fit in a fundraising trip to California earlier that week.)
McMorrow has expressed support for reforms to ICE, advocating for transparency such as requiring agents to be unmasked and calling for a halt to funding until a complete overhaul and accountability of the agency is achieved.
In contrast, Stevens is co-sponsoring a bill aimed at redirecting what she termed ICE’s $75 billion “slush fund” to local law enforcement, and has even called for the impeachment of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem.
The candidates are also at odds over health care, a topic that has sparked recent debates.
In an interview with Democratic influencer Brian Tyler Cohen last week, El-Sayed reignited discussions on the matter. He remarked, “If you like your insurance from your employer or from your union, that can still be there for you,” seemingly backtracking on his previous firm endorsement of Medicare for All. McMorrow and her allies seized upon this shift, suggesting that El-Sayed’s comments contradicted his earlier attacks on her position. El-Sayed had hosted a health care town hall with Sanders in December, where he emphasized the differences between his Medicare for All advocacy and the public option favored by McMorrow and Stevens.
“It’s absurd to claim you’re the ‘next generation’ of Democratic leadership while running AGAINST Medicare for All in 2026,” he tweeted a month ago, referencing McMorrow.
In a follow-up interview with POLITICO after the exchange, El-Sayed refrained from elaborating on his position. A spokesperson clarified that he supports Medicare for All as a baseline while allowing for additional private coverage through unions or employers.
The ongoing conflict in Gaza has also fueled significant divisions within the race.
El-Sayed, the son of Egyptian immigrants, has been a vocal critic of Israel, alleging that it is committing genocide in Gaza. This stance resonates in a state with a substantial Arab-American population; over 100,000 voters expressed “uncommitted” rather than supporting then-President Joe Biden in the 2024 primary due to his administration’s backing of Israel — a movement El-Sayed helped champion.
He shared with POLITICO that when he discusses U.S. tax dollars “being misappropriated to weaponize food against children and to subsidize genocide, rather than investing in real people, their communities, their kids, and their health care,” he receives enthusiastic applause.
McMorrow took longer to arrive at a similar perspective. In October, when asked if she believed the conflict constituted genocide, she paused, inhaled deeply, and replied, “Based on the definition, yes.” Her campaign later indicated that her stance was informed by a September UN Commission of Inquiry report.
Stevens has maintained a more supportive stance towards Israel, garnering the backing of AIPAC, the influential pro-Israel lobby. Concerns have been raised among senior Michigan Democrats that AIPAC’s independent expenditure campaign supporting Stevens could escalate tensions in the primary ahead of the general election. An AIPAC spokesperson indicated to POLITICO that they have no updates on their plans.
When asked in November whether she was comfortable with AIPAC’s support, Stevens evaded the question, expressing her delight at “seeing the hostages return” and stating her desire for “an enduring ceasefire where Hamas surrenders, allowing the people of Palestine and Israel to live peacefully side by side.”
Stevens’ campaign has also criticized both El-Sayed and McMorrow’s records on manufacturing, a sector employing around 600,000 in Michigan. She asserted that McMorrow “has a history of criticizing Michigan’s key industries,” while claiming El-Sayed “supports policies that would decimate Michigan’s manufacturing economy,” referencing his backing of the Green New Deal.
“I’m going to call out what isn’t working for Michigan’s manufacturing economy, whether it’s Mike Rogers or members of my own party,” Stevens stated during an interview at the Teamsters Local 234 union hall in Plymouth.
Old school vs. new school
The race is shaping up as a test of traditional coalitional politics at a time increasingly dominated by viral videos rather than face-to-face interactions and local campaigning.
Stevens has leaned heavily into conventional campaigning, while El-Sayed has focused more on online engagement, with McMorrow’s strategy once again falling somewhere in between.
McMorrow made headlines with a viral video condemning NFL RedZone for its commercials as “the latest example of corporate greed,” linking it to rising grocery prices. This clip garnered nearly two million views.
El-Sayed has cultivated a national following and fundraising network, partly through a health care-focused podcast on Crooked Media, the platform created by the Pod Save America team, which includes several former Obama advisers. At least three members—Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, and Ben Rhodes—appeared at El-Sayed’s fundraiser earlier this month in California.
Stevens has adopted a different approach, placing greater emphasis on local campaign events and the tangible challenges faced by industries such as auto manufacturing.
In a memo sent a year before Election Day, Stevens’ campaign asserted that her “strong connections with Black Michiganders and union workers, her unwavering focus on lowering costs and safeguarding Michigan manufacturing, and her record of fighting for Michiganders — which has led to her success in tough primaries and general elections — will drive her path to victory.”
During her time at a Teamsters Local 234 union hall, she prioritized discussing local labor disputes over national issues.
“Look, manufacturing may not set social media ablaze, but it sustains many jobs here,” she told POLITICO afterward.
This steadfast approach helped her secure and maintain a swing seat, and she believes it will yield dividends now.
“I’ve navigated tough primaries before, and I’m just here to win it for Michiganders,” she affirmed.
However, it remains uncertain how well this tactic will resonate in a statewide campaign.
“Haley appears to have more institutional backing — whether or not that’s openly acknowledged — which could be an asset but might also prove to be a liability,” remarked a long-time Michigan Democratic operative, who preferred to remain neutral in the race but was willing to discuss the primary dynamics. “Her presence on the campaign trail doesn’t exactly scream, Man, I need to be by her side.”
Stevens has faced scrutiny regarding her ability to galvanize online grassroots support or energize audiences during rallies. “She’s [an] inconsistent campaigner when it comes to retail politics,” said Adam Jentleson, a veteran Democratic strategist advocating for the party to distance itself from left-wing interest groups and concentrate on broadening the party’s coalition to win (he has also expressed concern about El-Sayed’s viability as a general-election candidate).
At this stage, both El-Sayed and Stevens are directing most of their firepower at McMorrow, viewing her as the primary threat to their respective electoral coalitions.
Insiders and outsiders
Stevens’ electoral history is a key reason many establishment-oriented Democrats in D.C. favor her candidacy.
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) invited Stevens to a fundraising retreat in Napa Valley featuring a crypto roundtable, but Stevens informed POLITICO that she missed it due to the government shutdown.
In a conversation with POLITICO, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expressed confidence in defending Michigan but refrained from commenting on individual candidates; a DSCC spokesperson declined to share whether the committee would officially endorse in the race.
McMorrow has adopted a markedly different stance toward the Democratic leadership in Washington.
She told POLITICO last March, even before officially entering the race, that she would not support Schumer as party leader if elected to the Senate. She also penned a scathing letter to President Biden following his lackluster debate performance against Donald Trump, urging him to withdraw from the race.
“We’re drawing a contrast that’s fundamentally about defining my lane,” McMorrow explained during a campaign stop in Grand Rapids late last year, insinuating that Stevens, without naming her, was running “an uninspired campaign straight from the D.C. playbook,” while also hinting that El-Sayed, without naming him, was promoting a simplistic solution to democracy’s problems.
Stevens has maintained that it is too early to determine her stance on supporting Schumer; she has referred to him as “a great leader.”
El-Sayed has yet to clarify his position on Schumer’s leadership but has made it clear he is running against the Democratic establishment.
“The movement we’re building is about recognizing that the divide in our politics is not merely left versus right, but rather between those who are locked out and those who are doing the locking,” El-Sayed articulated to POLITICO.
Amidst the competitive landscape, one thing the candidates seem to agree on is the importance of this race’s implications.
“The future of this party will hinge on the outcome of this race,” McMorrow concluded.
Elena Scheider contributed to this report.
