“Today’s GDP report indicates that President Trump continues to drive impressive private sector growth, supported by strong consumption and investment. Despite the adverse impacts of the Democrat Government Shutdown last fall, the GDP growth for 2025 significantly outperformed predictions from the Federal Reserve, Congressional Budget Office, and the International Monetary Fund. As President Trump’s established policies of tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, and energy production gain traction, we anticipate an even more robust economic upturn in 2026.” — White House Deputy Press Secretary Kush Desai
President Donald J. Trump has once again validated his position: the Democrats’ 43-day government shutdown intentionally stunted economic progress last year, depriving the American populace of substantial growth. Nevertheless, today’s GDP report reveals a vibrant economy in 2025, propelled by increased business investments, job creation in the private sector, and wage increases that outpaced economist forecasts. The trajectory of President Trump’s America First agenda is set to elevate further in 2026.
The Trump Administration has been vocal about the potential repercussions of the Democrat Shutdown for months:
Council of Economic Advisers (10/1/25): “Our analysis shows that the shutdown could have extensive economic repercussions, diminishing America’s growth prospects… These repercussions will worsen the longer the shutdown persists.”
Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent (10/2/25): “Shutting down the government to engage in discussions is counterproductive; it risks lowering GDP… We could witness a decline in growth and negatively impact working Americans.”
The White House (10/3/25): All 50 States Will Experience Significant Economic Damage from the Democrat Shutdown.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett (10/5/25): “It’s common sense to avoid layoffs and the $15 billion weekly hit to GDP that the Council of Economic Advisers has indicated.”
Secretary Bessent (11/9/25): “Estimates suggest that economic growth for this quarter could be halved.”
Director Hassett (11/9/25): “Goldman Sachs, with its esteemed economic team, estimates that we’ve already diminished GDP by about 1.5%. I suspect that figure may be conservative if this continues…”
Secretary Bessent (12/16/25): “They were unable to thwart President Trump. After attempts in the courts and media, they resorted to the extreme measure of the longest government shutdown in history. This had a detrimental effect on GDP.”
President Trump (12/29/25): “Without the shutdown, we would have gained an additional point and a quarter.”
President Trump (1/13/26): “This is despite the Democrat Shutdown, where we lost at least one-and-a-half points.”
President Trump (1/29/26): “Without the shutdown, we could have gained about a point and a half more…”
President Trump (2/2/26): “The 43-day shutdown cost us a point and a half.”
President Trump (2/8/26): “That shutdown, which I label the ‘Democrat Shutdown,’ resulted in a loss of a point-and-a-half.”
It wasn’t solely the Trump Administration raising alarms. External economists and analysts echoed the sentiment regarding the impact of the Democrat Shutdown on economic growth:
CNN’s Matt Egan (9/29/25): “Typically, each week of a government shutdown reduces GDP by approximately 0.2 percentage points.”
Congressional Budget Office (10/29/25): “We project that real GDP, adjusted for inflation, will see a decline in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to the shutdown. Depending on its length, the shutdown may reduce annualized real GDP growth in that quarter by 1.0 to 2.0 percentage points.”
Goldman Sachs (11/2/25): “If the shutdown persists for roughly six weeks, we expect it to cut quarter-on-quarter annualized GDP growth in Q4 2025 by 1.15 percentage points.”
EY-Parthenon (11/7/25): “Should the shutdown extend over two months, disruptions in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits and reductions in air travel could lead to a cumulative economic drag of 1.8 to 2.0 percentage points, representing a significant setback even after operations resume.”
