Thursday, 30 Oct 2025
  • Contact
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • DMCA
logo logo
  • World
  • Politics
  • Crime
  • Economy
  • Tech & Science
  • Sports
  • Entertainment
  • More
    • Education
    • Celebrities
    • Culture and Arts
    • Environment
    • Health and Wellness
    • Lifestyle
  • 🔥
  • Trump
  • VIDEO
  • House
  • White
  • ScienceAlert
  • Trumps
  • Watch
  • man
  • Health
  • Season
Font ResizerAa
American FocusAmerican Focus
Search
  • World
  • Politics
  • Crime
  • Economy
  • Tech & Science
  • Sports
  • Entertainment
  • More
    • Education
    • Celebrities
    • Culture and Arts
    • Environment
    • Health and Wellness
    • Lifestyle
Follow US
© 2024 americanfocus.online – All Rights Reserved.
American Focus > Blog > Economy > Rational Crime and Subjective Probability
Economy

Rational Crime and Subjective Probability

Last updated: January 8, 2025 11:57 am
Share
Rational Crime and Subjective Probability
SHARE

A Closer Look at Criminal Behavior: Lessons from True Crime

As a self-professed true crime enthusiast, I often find myself immersed in the world of podcasts and documentaries that delve into the minds of criminals. One common theme that emerges from these stories is the tendency for criminals to overestimate their chances of getting away with their crimes. This phenomenon is not only fascinating but also sheds light on the rationality behind criminal behavior.

One of my favorite shows in this genre is The Casual Criminalist, hosted by Simon Whistler. In each episode, Whistler dissects a criminal case with a mix of scripted content and off-the-cuff commentary. The show often highlights the ineptitude of criminals who believed they could outsmart the system, such as the infamous case of Leopold and Loeb.

Recently, I revisited Gary Becker’s model of criminal behavior, which posits that criminals make rational decisions based on the expected payoff and cost of their actions. This cost-benefit analysis includes factors like the probability and severity of punishment. However, what’s crucial to understand is that the criminal’s subjective estimation of the likelihood of being caught plays a significant role in their decision-making process.

In cases where criminals drastically underestimate their chances of facing consequences, they may end up committing crimes that are not worth the risk by their own standards. This highlights the importance of accurate risk assessment in deterrence. If criminals perceive a low probability of punishment, they may be more inclined to engage in criminal behavior.

On the other hand, there are instances where criminals like Joseph DeAngelo, the Golden State Killer, demonstrate a keen awareness of the risks involved. DeAngelo’s meticulous planning and avoidance of leaving DNA evidence allowed him to evade capture for decades. However, a shift in law enforcement tactics, particularly the use of DNA evidence, ultimately led to his apprehension.

See also  Journalist Notes 'Tone Deaf' Disconnection Between Democrats and Reality on Crime in DC (VIDEO) |

DeAngelo’s decision to cease his criminal activities after realizing the increased risk of detection exemplifies the rationality behind criminal behavior. When the expected cost of committing a crime outweighs the potential benefits, even the most hardened criminals may choose to reevaluate their actions.

While rational choice theory may not encompass all aspects of human behavior, it offers valuable insights into the motivations and decision-making processes of individuals involved in criminal activities. The intersection of psychology, law enforcement tactics, and rational decision-making provides a compelling lens through which to analyze and understand the complexities of criminal behavior.

TAGGED:CrimeProbabilityRationalSubjective
Share This Article
Twitter Email Copy Link Print
Previous Article Grab Your Free Lexia® Pocket Chart Activities Guide Grab Your Free Lexia® Pocket Chart Activities Guide
Next Article Gladiators Season 2 Release Date, Trailer, News and Events Gladiators Season 2 Release Date, Trailer, News and Events
Leave a comment

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Popular Posts

Nvidia chief Jensen Huang condemns US chip curbs on China as ‘a failure’

In a recent development, Nvidia chief Jensen Huang expressed strong criticism against US export controls…

May 20, 2025

Hugging Face unveils two new humanoid robots

Introducing Hugging Face's New Humanoid Robots: HopeJR and Reachy Mini Hugging Face, the AI development…

May 30, 2025

Samsung Rolls Out One UI 8 Beta for Galaxy S25 and Galaxy Watch 7

Samsung smartphones and wearables are getting a fresh update with the latest One UI 8…

July 1, 2025

Pennsylvania Lowe’s worker allegedly shoots co-worker dead on forklift — confesses to murder in HR email

The tragic incident that took place at a Lowe's store in Scranton, Pennsylvania has left…

June 18, 2025

Hawaii doctor allegedly pushed wife from beauty spot for refusing to take a pic

A shocking incident unfolded at a popular Hawaii beauty spot, the Pali Lookout, where a…

March 25, 2025

You Might Also Like

Fed Cuts Rates by a Quarter Point, as Expected
Economy

Fed Cuts Rates by a Quarter Point, as Expected

October 30, 2025
Fed’s Standing Repo Facility hits record high as policy meeting outcome looms
Economy

Fed’s Standing Repo Facility hits record high as policy meeting outcome looms

October 30, 2025
MCP stacks have a 92% exploit probability: How 10 plugins became enterprise security's biggest blind spot
Tech and Science

MCP stacks have a 92% exploit probability: How 10 plugins became enterprise security's biggest blind spot

October 30, 2025
BofA Raises PT on Embraer (ERJ) to  Following Investor Day
Economy

BofA Raises PT on Embraer (ERJ) to $70 Following Investor Day

October 30, 2025
logo logo
Facebook Twitter Youtube

About US


Explore global affairs, political insights, and linguistic origins. Stay informed with our comprehensive coverage of world news, politics, and Lifestyle.

Top Categories
  • Crime
  • Environment
  • Sports
  • Tech and Science
Usefull Links
  • Contact
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • DMCA

© 2024 americanfocus.online –  All Rights Reserved.

Welcome Back!

Sign in to your account

Lost your password?