The Republican Party faces a shrinking pool of state legislative leaders.
Over the last 14 months, more than a dozen GOP leaders from state legislatures nationwide, including those in North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Iowa, have decided to step down or announced their retirements. This trend could signal the party’s waning fortunes ahead of the midterm elections.
While each leader has their own reasons for leaving, the trend highlights challenges not only for congressional Republicans but also for state legislatures, as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings decline amid rising gas prices and ongoing concerns about the conflict in Iran. The GOP could be bracing for a repeat of the 2018 midterms when Democrats successfully flipped six legislative chambers and gained over 300 seats nationwide.
“I think he puts Republicans on the defensive with his actions,” commented Dick Wadhams, a seasoned consultant and former state GOP chair in Colorado. “They can’t stand it anymore.”
Some Republicans, however, argue that Trump remains a strong figure for the party. They contend that the departure of GOP leaders in certain state legislatures doesn’t necessarily mean trouble for the midterms, although it may pose challenges in some states.
“If the election were next week, I’d be bothered,” said Wisconsin GOP Chair Brian Schimming. “The election is not next week.”
Despite this optimism, Schimming acknowledges that the loss of key Republicans in Wisconsin, such as Assembly Speaker Robin Vos who announced his retirement in February and Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu who followed last month, complicates the party’s efforts to maintain its slim margins, particularly in the state Senate. “The Senate side is just more problematic,” he noted.
The departure of at least 14 Republican leaders, almost twice the number of Democrats, might indicate a broader shift in state politics and the loss of potential national leaders.
This trend mirrors the situation in Congress, where 36 Republican House members and seven GOP senators have declared they will not seek reelection this November, compared to 21 House members and four senators among Democrats.
Democrats aim to reverse Republican gains achieved since 2010 when the GOP took control of 22 chambers, enabling them to pass conservative legislation on voting rights, abortion, and redistricting. Democrats have been steadily eroding these Republican gains since the midterm elections during Trump’s first term, continuing through 2020 and 2022, when they flipped four Republican-held chambers.
Republicans still hold 60 percent of state chambers nationwide, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Democrats, buoyed by victories in New Jersey and Virginia, hope 2026 will be a turning point like 2010. To this end, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is investing $50 million to target 42 chambers this November, its largest and most comprehensive effort to date. The Republican State Leadership Committee has similar plans but has yet to release specifics.
Democrats view the exodus of senior Republicans as a sign of building momentum. An early example came in New York, where Assembly Minority Leader Will Barclay announced in February 2025 that “it was the time for me to move on.” Though Republicans had recently broken a Democratic supermajority in the New York Senate, they have since struggled to capture key seats in special elections. Several Democrats are vying to claim Barclay’s seat.
In June, Colorado House Minority Leader Rose Pugliese resigned unexpectedly, following Republicans’ success in breaking the Democratic House supermajority in 2024. A few months later, Senate Minority Leader Paul Lundeen left his role to become CEO of a conservative nonprofit.
“[Lundeen] clearly showed that he didn’t think that Colorado was ever going to be winnable,” said Wadhams. “At least in the foreseeable future.”
The wave of GOP departures peaked last month with the retirements of Wisconsin’s LeMahieu and Speaker Pro Tempore Kevin Petersen, and North Carolina Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger losing his primary for reelection.
Berger’s departure marks the second leadership change this cycle for North Carolina Republicans, following Senate Majority Leader Paul Newton’s resignation in March 2025 to become vice chancellor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. These changes occur as Democrats aim to dismantle the Senate supermajority that Republicans built after redrawing district maps.
“Berger’s retirement will have an impact on the Senate side as it relates to the political operations that are raising money,” said GOP strategist Paul Shumaker, who has managed state and federal campaigns and played a role in flipping the North Carolina Assembly red in 2010. However, Shumaker maintains that Republicans are compensating for their losses in fundraising and recruitment. “Leadership has done a pretty good job of making sure they had a good field of candidates lined up,” he asserted.
Both Democrats and Republicans are especially focused on Wisconsin. Democrats gained 10 Assembly seats in 2024 after the Wisconsin Supreme Court mandated redrawn maps, leaving them within five seats of a majority. The state Senate is two seats away from flipping, with half of its members facing the new maps for the first time this cycle. The potential to capture both chambers has propelled Democrats to an off-year fundraising record, with the Democratic Assembly and Senate committees reporting nearly $3.3 million in 2025, compared to $2.2 million in 2023.
Schimming, the Wisconsin GOP Chair, remains unconcerned about Democrats’ fundraising achievements or his party’s ability to retain the Assembly. “[If] it was late in the season, I’d probably be more worked up by that,” he said.
A recent Marquette Law School poll revealed that only 42 percent of Wisconsin voters approve of Trump’s performance, a result Schimming dismissed eight months before the election. The poll also indicated that a majority of Wisconsin voters disapproved of the Iran war and supported the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Trump’s tariffs.
Addressing concerns about Trump’s popularity, White House spokesperson Olivia Wales stated that the president “has delivered for Americans with a secure border, cooling inflation, working-class tax cuts, new trade deals, new drug pricing deals, and trillions in investments.” She emphasized that the White House “is keen to tout these victories in the months ahead as we continue to work to Make America Great Again.”
If Democrats succeed this November, party officials plan to challenge the president’s policies on redistricting, immigration, Medicaid funding, and voting.
“This administration is going to continue to push work into the states, we know that,” stated DLCC President Heather Williams. “The outcome that certainly we are working toward, on our target map, is that we are putting Democrats in an increased position of power.”
