Smoke plumes rise following missile strikes in Tehran on March 1, 2026. The United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28, killing Iran’s supreme leader and top military leaders, prompting authorities to retaliate with strikes on Israel and US bases across the Gulf.
Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images
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Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images
An account trading under the username “Magamyman” made more than $553,000 placing bets on the prediction market Polymarket that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be out of power just before an Israeli strike killed him on Saturday.
The trades drew scrutiny from members of Congress and critics of prediction markets, who say the platforms invite people with access to classified information to profit on lethal military operations. On Polymarket alone, half-a-billion dollars was traded over when exactly U.S. forces would drop bombs on Iran.
“It’s insane this is legal,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) wrote on X. “People around Trump are profiting off war and death,” he said, adding he plans to introduce legislation “asap” to outlaw this kind of activity.
The White House denied anyone in Trump’s orbit was behind the lucrative trades.
The Trump family, however, does have ties to Polymarket. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, is an adviser to Polymarket and his venture capital firm 1789 Capital has invested millions into the controversial business. The Trump administration has dropped two federal investigations into Polymarket that were opened by President Joe Biden’s officials.
