SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) has had quite the rollercoaster ride for new shareholders in its first week of public trading. The company set its IPO price at $135 per share on June 11, making it the largest IPO ever at $75 billion. The stock soared about 19% on its Nasdaq debut the following day, reaching over $200 per share. However, as of now, the shares have dipped back down to around $185, leaving many early buyers underwater.
Looking beyond the initial ups and downs, the real test for SpaceX is set to come in late July or early August. This is when two major events will impact the stock simultaneously. The first is the unlocking of shares held by employees and early investors, allowing them to sell up to 20% of their locked shares. Additionally, the company is expected to release its quarterly earnings report for the second quarter of 2026 during this period.
One key factor contributing to the stock’s volatility is the thin float of SpaceX. Only about 5% of the company was floated during the IPO, with the rest held by insiders who are subject to lock-up agreements. The first wave of sellable shares hitting the market, combined with the first earnings report, could lead to significant fluctuations in the stock price.
While SpaceX reported $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025, with Starlink generating the majority of the revenue, the company also reported a net loss of $4.9 billion. Starlink, the satellite internet service, accounted for $11.4 billion in revenue and showed an operating profit of $4.4 billion. On the other hand, the AI segment, including the recent acquisition of Cursor maker Anysphere, recorded losses exceeding $6 billion.
Investors are eagerly awaiting the upcoming earnings report to gauge the company’s financial performance and growth trajectory. Starlink has proven to be a profitable and fast-growing business, while SpaceX’s rocket launch operations remain unmatched in the industry.
Despite the potential of SpaceX’s business segments, some caution is warranted. The stock’s valuation of around $2.4 trillion is lofty, especially considering the company’s ongoing losses and the impending increase in available shares for trading. It may be prudent to wait for the earnings report and the subsequent market reaction before making any investment decisions.
In conclusion, while SpaceX holds promise as a leading player in the space exploration and satellite internet sectors, investors should approach with caution given the upcoming challenges and uncertainties. The stock’s performance post-earnings report and share unlock will provide valuable insights into the company’s future prospects.
