After decades of political drought, Texas Democrats are pinning their hopes on a former seminarian-turned-politician to guide them to victory.
With Attorney General Ken Paxton nominated by Republicans for the U.S. Senate, Democrats view the upcoming November election as their best shot this century to turn Texas blue. The political climate appears favorable, fueled by widespread dissatisfaction with the economy and President Donald Trump’s leadership. Additionally, the Texas GOP is seen as divided following a turbulent Senate primary that unseated Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), leaving Paxton, a candidate seen as flawed due to personal controversies, in the spotlight.
State Rep. James Talarico has emerged as the Democratic contender poised to capitalize on this moment.
“Democrats have been wandering for three decades,” remarked Mark McKinnon, a seasoned GOP strategist and adviser to former President George W. Bush. “Talarico could be their Moses.”
Cliff Walker, a Texas Democratic strategist and principal at Seeker Strategies, shares this optimism: “People are feeling very bullish. I think this is the year.”
Democratic strategists, lawmakers, and activists argue that Talarico’s charisma, fundraising abilities, and favorable early polling position him as a strong candidate.
Nonetheless, flipping a statewide seat in Texas has been a formidable challenge for Democrats, who have not sent one of their own to the Senate since 1988. Despite repeated investments and efforts, success has been elusive.
Paxton poses a significant challenge. The attorney general, who decisively defeated Cornyn in a recent runoff, came out of the most expensive Senate primary on record with a focus on the November election. With Trump’s endorsement secured, Paxton announced a strategy shift to target Talarico, whom he labels as a “leftist lunatic” and “Talafreako.”
In his victory speech, Paxton stated, “My opponent is the most extreme radical the Democrats have ever nominated. Regardless of his fundraising, James Talarico will be nothing more than a puppet for Chuck Schumer and national Democrats.”
Democrats have been optimistic in the past. In 2014, former state Sen. Wendy Davis aimed to capture the governor’s office but lost significantly to then-Attorney General Greg Abbott despite a $36 million campaign.
In 2018, national Democrats were hesitant to back former Rep. Beto O’Rourke against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz. O’Rourke’s campaign gained momentum late in the race, setting fundraising records and polling closely before narrowly losing, leaving Democrats to ponder what might have been with earlier support.
In subsequent elections, Democrats faced defeats: Cornyn triumphed over MJ Hegar by nearly 10 points in 2020, and Cruz defeated Colin Allred by eight in 2024.
This election cycle, however, offers new hope. Talarico’s polling and fundraising efforts are outpacing where O’Rourke was during a similar period in 2018. He also benefits from a more robust Democratic infrastructure in Texas, much of which grew from O’Rourke’s efforts.
“This is the best chance Texas Democrats have had to win a statewide race in my 25 years of campaigning,” said Democratic strategist Jeff Rotkoff.
According to Matt Angle of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic-aligned group, the national and local political climate is increasingly unfavorable for Republicans, as voter frustration with the Iran war and its impact on energy prices grows.
Angle noted, “There’s an unprecedented level of dissatisfaction with Republicans among Texas voters.”
Evidence of this shift is seen in Texas’ 9th Senate District, which flipped to a Democrat in January despite Trump winning it by 17 points in 2024. The Texas Majority PAC found that many Republican-leaning voters who supported the Democrat did so because they refused to back any MAGA candidate, as explained by the group’s director, Katherine Fischer.
“Last cycle, it was challenging with an unpopular president on our side. Now, the tables have turned,” Fischer said.
Democrats are banking on Cornyn’s argument that Paxton’s controversies will weigh down the Republican ticket.
Cornyn stated on Fox News, “Ken Paxton will be a burden. Even if he wins, it will be by a narrow margin, and it could negatively impact down-ballot races.”
Some national Republicans are concerned. “The mood isn’t great for Republicans, and it’s worse in Texas,” said a Washington GOP operative close to Cornyn. “We’re facing challenges statewide, and we’ve put forward the worst possible candidate.”
“I can’t think of a worse choice for the top of the ticket than Ken Paxton,” he added. “It’s laughable.”
Despite controversies, Paxton retains significant support among GOP voters. Tim Edson, former political director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, believes Paxton can only be defeated by Talarico, whom he dismisses as a “Marxist creep.”
The NRSC supported Cornyn in the primary, later criticizing Talarico without mentioning Paxton.
Samantha Cantrell, NRSC spokesperson, said, “A state Trump won by nearly 14 points won’t elect James Talarico, a radical leftist who supports nonbinary God and open borders.”
Paxton is focusing on portraying Talarico as too progressive, with a super PAC running ads labeling him as ‘weird,’ highlighting his statements on gender, race, and other issues.
These cultural issues could be Talarico’s biggest challenge as he seeks to attract a broad coalition of progressives, moderates, independents, and Trump-weary Republicans. Talarico has spoken about the existence of “more than two” biological sexes and his own identity reflections.
Some allies advise him to steer clear of these topics.
“Avoid it,” advised state Sen. Royce West from Dallas. “He needs a plan to appeal to centrists.”
Downballot Democrats also hope to leverage Talarico’s momentum for their races. The stakes are high: the post-2030 Census could bring additional House seats to Texas, impacting national political dynamics. With new maps favoring Republicans and no Senate race until 2030, now is the time for Texas Democrats to prove they can compete statewide.
“There’s a lot of indicators suggesting this cycle is more favorable than anything in the past 30 years,” said Fischer. “Whether it’s enough to win in November remains to be seen. If a victory in Texas is possible, the conditions are set for us to achieve it.”
