The 5 big questions about the Senate battleground map

The contest for control of the Senate is still a year and a half away, yet the pivotal questions that will shape the outcome are starting to crystallize.

For Democrats to seize the upper chamber, they must achieve a flawless execution of their strategy. This entails netting four seats, a challenging feat made more complicated by a wave of retirements earlier this year that has put several Democratic-held seats in jeopardy. To add to their woes, there aren’t many pickup opportunities on the horizon—only two of the 22 Republican seats up for reelection next year are located in states that President Donald Trump either lost or barely won by less than a 10% margin in 2024.

Nevertheless, Democratic leaders remain optimistic, buoyed by the unexpected retirement of Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who found himself at odds with Republicans over their hallmark legislative achievement.

Here are five crucial questions looming over the Senate race:

Can Democrats land their ideal candidates?

Democrats are eagerly awaiting decisions from Roy Cooper and Janet Mills on whether they will enter the Senate race in North Carolina and Maine, respectively. Both are prominent figures—Cooper being a former governor and Mills the current one—who could significantly enhance the party’s chances in these competitive battlegrounds. Their indecision has cast a long shadow over recruitment efforts in both states, underscoring the party’s strong preference for their candidacies.

The outlook appears more favorable for Democrats in North Carolina, where Cooper’s top political advisor revealed earlier this month that he is “strongly considering a run” and will announce his decision soon. North Carolina Democrats argue that Cooper’s approachable persona, combined with his robust fundraising network, would instantly energize the now-open race.

Tillis’s announcement of his non-candidacy last month, following a public dispute with Trump over a controversial fiscal bill, has increased the pressure on Cooper to throw his hat in the ring, as Democratic state Sen. Jay Chaudhuri noted, “He is heads and shoulders above every other candidate.”

However, Cooper’s entry is not guaranteed. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel launched his Senate primary campaign in April and has been noncommittal about stepping aside should Cooper decide to run. Rep. Don Davis is also contemplating his candidacy.

On the Republican side, major contenders have yet to emerge, although Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law, has indicated interest.

National Democrats continue to court Mills, but her willingness to challenge Sen. Susan Collins remains uncertain. Mills, now 77, won reelection in 2022 by a solid 13 percentage points, yet she stated in April that “I’m not planning to run for another office,” albeit with the caveat that “things change week to week, month to month.”

Meanwhile, Jordan Wood, the former chief of staff to California Rep. Katie Porter, has already raised $1 million in his campaign against Collins. Some Maine Democrats express concerns that the race has yet to draw more prominent candidates.

Could a chaotic Republican primary in Texas shake things up in November?

Texas Republicans are grappling with a convoluted—and costly—primary battle.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune recently discussed the high-stakes intra-party conflict involving Trump during a White House meeting, wherein state Attorney General Ken Paxton is challenging Sen. John Cornyn.

GOP leaders have been quietly attempting to persuade Trump for months to endorse Cornyn, arguing that his conservative credentials align with the president’s agenda, making him a safer bet for the general election.

Cornyn received a boost when Paxton’s wife announced she was filing for divorce on “biblical grounds,” an opportunity his allies quickly seized upon. He also managed to spend some time with Trump during a recent trip back to Texas.

However, Trump seems to be remaining on the sidelines for the time being, as polling indicates Cornyn consistently trails Paxton in the primary race. Rep. Wesley Hunt is also considering a Senate run and accompanied Trump during his Texas visit.

When asked about Cornyn’s standing, Thune told reporters, “We’re working on it.”

Democrats, while optimistic, have reason to worry; some Republicans believe Paxton could be a weaker general election candidate, potentially making Texas competitive for the first time in years. Former Rep. Colin Allred has already announced his candidacy, but Democrats are also bracing for their own crowded primary.

Who will the Republicans field in Democratic strongholds?

Democrats are tasked with defending two highly competitive Senate seats; a loss of either could effectively extinguish their hopes of regaining control of the Senate.

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp dealt a blow to Republican ambitions of unseating Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff when he opted not to enter the Senate race in May.

This leaves Republicans with a potentially tumultuous primary as several candidates consider challenging Ossoff, who already boasts a significant $15 million fundraising advantage. Rep. Buddy Carter is already in the race, with others, such as Rep. Rich McCormick and Rep. Mike Collins, also eyeing a bid.

Additionally, the former senator and current head of the Small Business Administration, Kelly Loeffler—who lost to Sen. Raphael Warnock in 2020—has not ruled out running again when asked earlier this year. Secretary of Veterans Affairs Doug Collins, who also ran in the state’s Senate primary in 2020, has similarly kept his options open.

One notable candidate who has opted out is Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the controversial figure and Trump ally.

In contrast to Georgia, Republicans have successfully recruited a top candidate in Michigan, following Democratic Sen. Gary Peters‘ surprise retirement announcement earlier this year. Former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers has decided to make another attempt at securing an open Senate seat after losing to Sen. Elissa Slotkin last year.

All eyes are now on Rep. Bill Huizenga, who is publicly contemplating a Senate run despite concerns among Republicans about a competitive primary and the future of his battleground House district.

Democrats are facing their own competitive primary in Michigan, with progressive candidates like former public health official Abdul El-Sayed, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and Rep. Haley Stevens vying for position.

New Hampshire also presents an open-seat race in a Democratic-held state, and Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas currently holds an advantage over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, both of whom seem to have a clear path to the general election.

Is there even a fourth state for Democrats to exploit?

While Democrats are hopeful for favorable national conditions by next November, they are still confronted with a daunting mathematical reality.

To flip the Senate, they need to net four seats, yet presently, they identify only two viable pickup opportunities: North Carolina—especially if Republicans veer even further to the right in their primary—and Maine.

Beyond that, the landscape becomes increasingly challenging: Sen. Joni Ernst is contemplating retirement in Iowa, which could lead to an open race in a state where House districts are becoming more competitive. However, some Democrats speculate their chances might improve with Ernst on the ballot, particularly after her controversial comments about Medicaid cuts sparked backlash.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer recently dined with former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who is quietly considering a return to the Senate against Sen. Jon Husted, the Republican now occupying Vice President JD Vance’s former seat. Yet many Democrats believe Brown may be more inclined to pursue a gubernatorial bid instead of re-entering Senate politics.

The opportunities dwindle further: Democrats will continue to target Texas, while Florida Democrats are desperately searching for any signs of life in a state that has transformed into a deep crimson hue.

In Nebraska, local Democrats are showing support for independent candidate Dan Osborn’s second Senate campaign, though Republicans are confident he won’t catch them off guard again after a close call last year.

Can Democrats turn Trump’s megabill into a political weapon?

Democrats see a chance to go on the offensive following the passage of a sweeping domestic-policy bill by Republicans earlier this month. The bill has received negative polling—especially regarding cuts to Medicaid—even as many voters admit they know little about its provisions.

“It’s going to raise insurance costs even if you don’t have Medicaid,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told The New York Times regarding Democrats’ strategy surrounding the megabill. “Your electricity costs will go up by 10 percent. Even for those not on Medicaid, it will impact everyone. And this is coinciding with rising costs due to tariffs.”

Some Republicans in Congress have expressed concerns about the political repercussions of their landmark legislation.

“You would be foolish not to worry about it,” Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) remarked to POLITICO shortly after the bill’s passage. “If you don’t keep the voters aligned with you, you’re going to wake up to a very unfortunate reality.”

The White House is touting polling that suggests certain elements of the bill—like work requirements for Medicaid recipients and eliminating taxes on tips—could form a winning message for Republicans next year.

In the coming months, televised ads will likely reveal who accurately predicted the political fallout.