The lesson of NYC crime dropping is that ‘no bail’ is a terrible mistake

Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch has announced a 9.5% overall decrease in crime in New York City last month compared to April of last year.

This is certainly positive news, earning appreciation for her and the NYPD’s dedicated officers.

However, it’s important to note that yearly comparisons can obscure the broader crime narrative in NYC.

To gain a clearer perspective, it’s crucial to compare crime rates before and after the implementation of bail reform.

The city’s crime rates started to surge not in the previous year but in 2019, coinciding with the passage of bail reform, which saw the release of thousands of habitual offenders.

From April 2019 to April 2026, murders decreased by 14%, but robberies increased by 8.8%, grand larcenies by 9.4%, felony assaults by 50%, and auto thefts by an alarming 171%.

Seven years into this bail-reform “experiment,” the overall felony index crime has risen by over 26% compared to pre-reform levels.

Reform Deceit

The reform has been a failure, though legislators are unlikely to acknowledge it.

They may even use the “declining” crime statistics to advocate for further misguided criminal-justice reforms, such as “elder parole” and “timely parole release.”

They might claim bail reform was a success, disregarding the hundreds of additional deaths and tens of thousands more victimizations over the past seven years.

Consider this: if crime rates had remained at 2019 levels from 2020 through 2024, the city would have seen 600 fewer murders, 1,000 fewer rapes, 10,000 fewer robberies, 22,000 fewer felony assaults, 16,000 fewer burglaries, 10,000 fewer grand larcenies, and 35,000 fewer car thefts during those five years.

Nearly 100,000 fewer New Yorkers would have been victims of felonies.

Before bail reform, city jails housed 7,800 inmates.

By January 1, 2020, when the law took effect, the inmate count dropped to 5,800 as over 2,000 career criminals were released with minimal supervision.

This number further fell to around 4,000 by April 2020, as the city released more dangerous criminals due to COVID concerns.

Unsurprisingly, crime rates soared.

Currently, the only factor reducing crime is the increased jail population, now at approximately 6,600.

Habitual offenders have even persuaded liberal NYC judges that they should remain off the streets.

Imagine the actions they had to take to achieve that.

Rikers Problem

Now, Mayor Mamdani and the City Council are pushing to reduce the city jail population by another 2,200 inmates to close Rikers.

The city is constructing only 4,400 jail cells for a population of 8.4 million.

Only the most dangerous offenders will be incarcerated; the rest will be released.

Recent history suggests this won’t bode well for law-abiding citizens.

Recently, after the NYPD dismantled a car-theft ring in The Bronx, Tisch noted that if those arrested aren’t jailed, all the efforts of the NYPD and the Bronx District Attorney’s Office would be in vain.

She’s certainly right.

City leaders should heed this warning.

Jim Quinn, a retired career prosecutor, served in the Queens District Attorney’s Office for 42 years.