Review of Aukus Deal Raises Concerns About US Submarine Production
When Democratic congressman Joe Courtney learned that the Pentagon was reviewing the Australia-UK-US deal for nuclear-powered submarines, he was taken aback. Courtney, a strong supporter of Aukus, described it as an “absolute thunderbolt” in an interview with the Financial Times.
The Aukus pact, aimed at enhancing capabilities in the Pacific to counter China, would allow Australia and the UK to collaborate on producing an attack submarine, known as SSN-Aukus, using highly classified US nuclear propulsion technology.
The news of the review sparked a debate in Australia, with three former prime ministers weighing in on the matter. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government downplayed concerns, while former leader Scott Morrison, who signed the pact in 2021, emphasized that it was a routine departmental review.
Despite efforts to reassure the public, the review, led by Elbridge Colby, the under-secretary of defense for policy and a known Aukus skeptic, has raised questions about the future of the deal.
The SSN-Aukus submarines are not expected to be operational until 2040. In the meantime, the US has agreed to sell up to five Virginia-class submarines to Australia starting in 2032.
However, critics point out that the US is struggling to meet its production targets for the Virginia-class submarines. Colby expressed concerns about the potential conflict in the coming years and highlighted the importance of US submarines in defending Taiwan.
The US Navy is working to increase submarine production to meet the demand from Australia. While the current production rate falls short of the target, Courtney remains optimistic, citing increased investment in the submarine industrial base and Australia’s commitment to investing $3 billion in the US submarine base.
Supporters of Aukus argue that the deal provides strategic advantages for the US in the Asia-Pacific region, countering the geographical challenges known as the “tyranny of distance.” Admiral Samuel Paparo of the US Indo-Pacific Command believes that Aukus will give the US a significant advantage and improve response times in the South China Sea.
Despite concerns raised by the review, former Australian diplomat Paul Myler believes that Aukus aligns with US interests and supports President Trump’s shipbuilding initiatives. Ely Ratner, a top Pentagon official, emphasized the importance of arming allies like Australia with advanced capabilities to deter Chinese aggression.
Some speculate that the Aukus review is linked to US efforts to urge Australia to increase its defense spending. Matthew Sussex from the Australian National University suggests that the review is a negotiating tactic to push Canberra to invest more in defense.
Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull expressed doubts about the US’s ability to spare Virginia-class submarines for Australia and called for a backup plan. He warned that delays in securing submarines could leave Australia vulnerable in the future.
As the review continues, supporters like Michael McCaul believe that Aukus is crucial for deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region, especially as tensions with China escalate. Despite uncertainties, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer remains optimistic about the future of Aukus.
As discussions unfold at the G7 summit, where leaders will meet to discuss global challenges, the fate of the Aukus deal hangs in the balance.
Additional reporting by David Sheppard in London
