Institutional Interest Fuels Wider Market Rally
BTC, Ethereum (ETHETH), and Solana (SOL) have seen stronger performance than XRP in the recent market surge, attributed to significant institutional interest through spot ETFs.
Prominent crypto attorney Bill Morgan noted that XRP is lagging behind the other three due to the absence of an XRP-spot ETF option, expressing:
“While XRP is gaining, it struggles to maintain levels above $3, even as Bitcoin reaches another all-time high. Bitcoin and Ethereum are benefiting from the approval of spot ETFs, while the SEC continues to postpone approvals for altcoin ETFs. How long will XRP ETF approvals be delayed?”
Morgan further highlighted XRP’s performance versus the US dollar, ETH, and BTC, emphasizing the strength of BTC, ETH, and SOL compared to XRP.
During this month, XRP/BTC and XRP/ETH have decreased by 3.85% and 7.12%, respectively, while SOL/XRP has increased by 7.41%. Concurrently, XRP has appreciated by 5.38% against the US dollar.
Potential Triggers for an XRP Surge
Despite trailing behind BTC, ETH, and SOL, there are prospects for XRP to outshine these cryptocurrencies in October. Four potential price triggers for XRP include:
- The launch of XRP-spot ETFs.
- Ripple obtaining a banking license.
- Increased utilization of XRP by international banks.
- Senate’s passage of the Market Structure Bill.
Though the Senate did not pass the stopgap bill, approval could potentially follow once funding resumes. The introduction of XRP-spot ETFs might attract mainstream investors looking for a cryptocurrency with tangible utility.
Considering that ETF investments have propelled BTC, ETH, and SOL upwards, a similar surge in interest for XRP-spot ETFs could elevate the token to new heights. Standard Chartered Bank previously forecast that XRP could rise above $5 by December 2025 and reach $12.5 by 2028.
For context, BTC has risen 169% since January 11, 2024, the inaugural trading day for US BTC-spot ETFs. A similar growth trajectory for XRP-spot ETFs could push XRP past the $5 mark.
Ripple’s Banking License and Policy Progress
Furthermore, XRP stands to gain from Ripple securing a banking license, favorable crypto legislation, rising demand for Ripple’s XRPL, and the global remittance market.
Speculation about Ripple obtaining a US banking license has intensified following the end of the public comment period. Meanwhile, developments regarding the Market Structure Bill continue to build positive sentiment despite the US government shutdown.
Crypto America host Eleanor Terrett presented recent updates on the Market Structure Bill, noting:
“Senator Cory Booker is leading bipartisan discussions on a crypto market structure draft for the Democrats on the Senate Ag Committee, succeeding Ranking Member Senator Amy Klobuchar, according to various sources familiar with the discussions. These negotiations are ongoing between Booker’s team and Chairman John Boozman’s group; a draft release date remains uncertain. Booker, one of New Jersey’s senators, has consistently supported balanced regulatory measures for crypto, enhancing the CFTC’s authority over digital commodities.”
Importance of Monitoring Congress
XRP surged by 14.69% following the US House of Representatives’ approval of the Market Structure Bill, while BTC only increased by 0.39%, highlighting XRP’s sensitivity to US cryptocurrency legislation.
Price Action & Technical Analysis: Will Bulls Overcome $3 Resistance?
XRP increased by 0.68% on Monday, October 6, building on the previous day’s slight gain of 0.02%, closing at $2.9905. Despite this, it underperformed the wider market (1.68%) but momentarily rose above the critical $3 mark.
Traders are keeping a close eye on these technical levels:
- Support: $2.8, $2.5.
- Resistance: $3, $3.1, $3.3, $3.66 (all-time high).
In the upcoming sessions, several significant events could influence short-term price movements:
- Demand for XRP ETFs, decisions regarding crypto-spot ETFs (delays or approvals), and BlackRock’s stance on an iShares XRP Trust.
- Views of blue-chip companies on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered banking license, updates on the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related developments that are likely to affect near-term price movements.
Catalysts & Outcomes
ETF investment trends, legislative news, developments regarding the banking license, and corporate demand for XRP as a reserve asset will primarily shape price direction.
Bearish Factors
- ETFs like GDLC, BITW, and XRPR show outflows, and BlackRock diminishes expectations for an XRP-spot ETF.
- The US government shutdown further delays approvals for XRP-spot ETFs.
- Legislators create obstacles to crypto-friendly regulations, exemplified by the Market Structure Bill.
- Blue-chip companies steer clear of holding XRP as a treasury reserve.
- The OCC either delays or denies Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license.
- SWIFT continues to dominate the global remittance market, hindering Ripple’s access.
Such bearish developments could lead to the token falling below $2.8, possibly testing the $2.5 support level.
Bullying Factors
- ETFs BITW, GDLC, and XRPR report strong inflows.
- BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approves spot ETFs.
- Prominent companies use XRP as a treasury asset, and additional payment platforms adopt Ripple technology.
- Ripple acquires a US-chartered banking license, coupled with the Senate’s approval of the Market Structure Bill.
- SWIFT loses market share in global remittances to Ripple.
These bullish developments could propel the token towards $3.1, and if sustained above $3.1, it would enable bulls to aim for $3.3 and the previous all-time high of $3.66.
