President Donald Trump’s assertive, top-down approach to the GOP faces a pivotal challenge as a faction of steadfast Indiana state Senate Republicans threatens to derail his mid-cycle redistricting plan, which is up for a vote this week.
The Indiana Republicans will convene Monday to deliberate on a map that was passed by the Indiana House on Friday. Proponents argue that the new map would effectively secure a 9-0 Republican congressional delegation for the upcoming midterm elections, a significant increase from the current 7-2 GOP advantage.
Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray, along with nearly half of his 40-member Republican majority, has resisted a four-month pressure campaign from the White House aimed at redrawing the congressional lines. Advocacy groups like Indiana Conservation Voters, Club for Growth, and Building a Better Economy have collectively spent close to half a million dollars on advertisements to sway public opinion—some against redistricting and others in favor of it. Veteran Trump campaign operatives, such as Chris LaCivita, have also aligned with the dark-money group Fair Maps Indiana to push the agenda forward.
Speaker Mike Johnson has been reaching out to hesitant Republican state senators in recent days, a development previously unreported, according to two anonymous sources familiar with the conversations. One Indiana Republican official noted that Johnson’s “soft touch” approach may be influencing the lawmakers’ decisions.
“Anyone who claims to know how this will unfold is likely mistaken,” this individual stated.
A spokesperson for Johnson did not respond to requests for comment.
The redistricting issue is at the forefront of Trump’s mind, as he brought it up during a White House Christmas party attended by Gov. Mike Braun. According to an anonymous attendee, Trump inquired of Braun whether the redistricting would pass, to which Braun confirmed it would.
The White House has not responded to requests for comment. A Republican close to the White House shared that Trump believes in fighting Democrats “every legal way” possible to maintain the majority and continue delivering for the people.
On Friday, Turning Point Action announced a collaboration with several Trump-aligned super PACs to target Indiana Republicans who are resisting the president’s redistricting efforts, threatening to spend millions on primary challenges against those party members.
Trump’s need for support is clear: the state Senate’s hesitations could jeopardize his plans to implement new maps nationwide to bolster his party’s slim House majority—one that Democrats could flip with just three net gains in an election likely to serve as a referendum on the ruling party.
“These individuals are under relentless pressure, and I’m uncertain if they can withstand it in the long run—time will tell,” remarked Mike Murphy, a former Republican state representative in Indiana. “My heart goes out to them and their families; they entered public service, only to become pawns in what I perceive as Trump’s strategy to avoid a third impeachment and potentially position himself for a third term.”
Trump’s pressure campaign in Indiana has included two visits from Vice President JD Vance on Air Force Two and numerous calls and invitations to Oval Office meetings with Bray and House Speaker Todd Huston.
As lawmakers prepare to meet, they face threats of violence following Trump’s provocative posts on social media intensifying pressure. Reports indicate that at least a dozen elected Indiana Republicans have experienced swatting incidents—false danger reports that prompt aggressive law enforcement responses aimed to intimidate the targets—alongside pipe bomb threats. Despite the fear, few have publicly changed their stances against redistricting since a recent stalemate resulted in a 19-19 tie on a vote that served as a proxy for gerrymandering. Consequently, Trump and the White House will need to persuade at least six GOP senators to secure a simple majority for the new maps.
“How does (Trump) have the time to meddle with someone as inconsequential as me when there are far more pressing matters demanding his attention as the leader of this nation?” Republican state Sen. Greg Walker remarked to a local newspaper in November.
Three Indiana Republicans closely following the situation—who prefer to remain anonymous—expressed skepticism regarding whether there are enough votes in the Senate to pass the redistricting map at this time.
When asked if he felt pressured by the White House to support redistricting, Huston simply stated, “We had conversations. There was no secret.”
Trump posted twice on Truth Social over the weekend, reiterating his demand for redistricting in Indiana, a state he previously dubbed “Importantville” during his 2016 campaign, asserting that “this new Map would give the incredible people of Indiana the opportunity to elect TWO additional Republicans in the 2026 Midterm Elections.” He also highlighted nine senators who “need encouragement to make the right decision,” as they have yet to declare their stance on the proposed map.
Last week, Turning Point deployed members of their “strike force” to engage with many of those same senators, although the outcomes of these efforts remain uncertain. “It’s challenging to gauge at this stage, given how fluid the situation is,” remarked Brett Galaszewski, Turning Point Action’s national enterprise director.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court reinstated Texas’ newly drawn congressional map last week, averting a major setback for Trump’s redistricting campaign. This development adds nine favorable seats across four states—Texas, Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina—to the Republican column, although these gains could be countered by five Democratic seats secured by California Gov. Gavin Newsom in a recent counteroffensive.
Redistricting conflicts are emerging across the country, with Democrat-led Virginia and Maryland moving in opposite directions.
Virginia Democrats expanded their control in the General Assembly by winning 13 House seats and flipping three statewide offices, including the governorship, in last month’s elections. Top Democrats in Virginia’s legislature appear unfazed by Indiana’s efforts to redraw its maps. The state’s leading Democrat stated it was “full steam ahead,” a nod to state lawmakers overcoming a procedural hurdle in October to place a constitutional amendment before voters, allowing the Democratic-led legislature to redraw its maps ahead of the 2026 midterms.
“We have a structured plan in place to ensure timely delivery of our maps,” state Sen. L. Louise Lucas said via text on Saturday. “Virginia is well-positioned.” Don Scott, the Virginia House speaker, mentioned that a new map could significantly alter the delegation dynamics in a state that is nearly evenly split between six Democrats and five Republicans.
Scott noted, “A 10-1 map is not beyond the realm of possibility if we draw the lines in a concise, community-focused manner,” during a public forum last week.
In Maryland, Gov. Wes Moore continues to urge state lawmakers to consider new maps but faces resistance from state Senate President Bill Ferguson, who has declined to bring the issue to a vote. Maryland’s lower chamber seems poised to address the matter, but House Speaker Adrienne Jones, who earlier backed the governor’s redistricting initiative, surprised many in Annapolis by announcing her immediate resignation last Thursday. The impact of this development on negotiations remains unclear.
Moore’s Redistricting Advisory Commission, established last month to gather public feedback on potential new maps, is scheduled to hold its final public meeting Friday before issuing recommendations to the governor and the Maryland General Assembly.
Trump initiated the current redistricting arms race when he pressured Texas to redraw its maps earlier this summer.
“We don’t operate in a vacuum; states are undertaking redistricting efforts nationwide, both in red and blue states,” Huston told reporters on Friday. “We deemed it essential to engage in this process to ensure a robust Republican majority.”
When asked if he felt “proud” of the proposed maps, Huston, who previously expressed unwavering support for them in 2021, refrained from using that term and instead stated he felt “very blessed to lead the Indiana House of Representatives.”
“I support this, and I back our efforts,” he affirmed.
The state Senate committee on elections will convene in the Senate chamber to discuss the congressional map Monday afternoon, with a final vote from the entire chamber anticipated on Thursday.
However, Trump’s demands on Indiana lawmakers have illuminated some of the limitations of his influence.
“The MAGA movement hasn’t infiltrated the state legislative arena,” remarked an Indiana Republican aligned with Trump’s redistricting initiative.
Yet, this individual, speaking on the condition of anonymity, referenced potential primaries against resistant Indiana Republicans, stating, “We’re either going to achieve new maps, or we’ll see a new Senate emerge.”
“Some believe Trump’s camp is bluffing or lacks the clout to enforce change, assuming the state Senate will simply dismiss the maps,” this source noted. “In reality, that would only mark the beginning of a protracted and brutal campaign to purge anyone in the state who defied Trump on this issue. There will likely be collateral damage that impacts even those who supported Trump.”
