Supporters of the MAGA movement have gathered for another day at CPAC in Grapevine, Texas, celebrating what they see as a major victory in the midterms: preventing President Donald Trump from endorsing John Cornyn before the upcoming GOP Senate primary runoff in May.
The MAGA community is taking comfort in the apparent lack of significant spending and polling from not only Cornyn’s campaign but also the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and One Nation, a nonprofit affiliated with the Senate Leadership Fund. This is interpreted by the MAGA group as Washington’s acceptance of a face-off between their preferred candidate, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Texas Democratic state Rep. James Talarico.
Steve Bannon, who views Paxton’s bid as crucial to the MAGA movement, told POLITICO, “The grassroots stood in the breach and said a resounding ‘NO’ to Cornyn. Polling and spending indicate that the Republican DC establishment reluctantly concurs. This could be the victory that empowers MAGA through the midterms.”
Paxton isn’t slowing down in his efforts. He recently traveled to Mar-a-Lago for a GOP dinner in Palm Beach County, where he was seen speaking with Trump, according to three informed sources.
One source noted that Trump and Paxton conversed on the patio, with another mentioning that the runoff was discussed. “It was a positive meeting,” added a third source. A spokesperson for Paxton declined to comment on the meeting.
This development underscores the intense efforts to dissuade Trump from endorsing Cornyn.
Despite indications of a Cornyn endorsement following his strong primary performance, MAGA supporters continue to advocate for Paxton. They remain hopeful that their candidate will prevail and continue to criticize Cornyn.
“The Cornyn endorsement looks dead, but it’s Trump, so it’s never certain,” a White House insider remarked. “Cornyn sealed his fate by carrying Mitch [McConnell]’s water on that ridiculous gun-grabbing bill. No one thought he would be dumb enough to run for reelection after that, but here we are.”
As of now, Trump might not endorse anyone. If he does, he might favor Paxton after the Senate debates the SAVE Act, according to three sources familiar with the situation.
“Nothing is dead,” a source close to the president’s mindset commented. “It’s all just stasis at the moment.”
Another White House official noted, “It’s looking like he may not endorse at all. But it doesn’t seem like he has made up his mind.”
The endorsement situation in Texas, especially amid the SAVE Act discussions, continues to perplex Trump, according to five Republicans near the White House. The president, absent from this year’s CPAC, is reportedly being patient and seeking a policy win.
“Trump isn’t going to endorse against Cornyn while the Save America Act is still being debated,” mentioned a White House ally. “For now, I think he stays out, but if Thune files cloture and Paxton continues to lead in every poll, then I could see him endorsing Paxton. No question Paxton wins if Trump stays out though.”
Republicans who spoke with POLITICO warned that Trump could change his mind at any moment. They noted that it’s still early in the runoff process, with Election Day nearly two months away. The deadline for candidates to withdraw from the ballot has already passed.
One source told POLITICO that the Senate Leadership Fund and NRSC are not spending to conserve resources, not because they are conceding defeat.
A spokesperson for Cornyn’s campaign stated that they will begin spending soon. “Ken Paxton said he needed $20M to win this primary and he’s barely raised a quarter of that,” said senior adviser Matt Mackowiak. “His professional failures and indefensible personal conduct make GOP donors and Texas primary voters deeply uncomfortable.” He added, “We have a plan to win this race and we are executing it. Ken Paxton is busy whining and hiding.”
Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser for the pro-Cornyn super PAC Texans for a Conservative Majority, explained that the runoff comes down to a question of resources. “The question remains the same,” LaCivita said. “Does the GOP want to spend $150-200 million holding what should be a safe seat and giving up other opportunities to gain advantage?”
Joanna Rodriguez, a spokesperson for the NRSC, emphasized that the fight to protect Trump’s Senate majority should not occur in Texas, and that John Cornyn is the only candidate who ensures it won’t.
In terms of funding, Republicans are counting on MAGA Inc. to provide the necessary resources for a general election if Paxton is the candidate, according to two GOP operatives. One operative cautioned that this planning is more about hope. A spokesperson for MAGA Inc. declined to comment.
At CPAC, where conservatives gathered for their annual pep rally, the general sentiment was that most Texas GOP primary voters had already made their choice, and a Trump endorsement wouldn’t significantly influence the outcome. Some attendees perceived Trump’s silence as an endorsement of Paxton.
“Texans — we’re done,” said Gregorio Heise, a Paxton supporter and congressional candidate in Dallas. “It’s already showing, even in the polling. Cornyn doesn’t do what Texans want, and [Paxton] does.”
On Friday night at CPAC, Paxton will address attendees as the headliner of the Ronald Reagan dinner. Cornyn does not plan to attend.
“It’s an opportunity to share your vision and essentially pitch yourself to the Texas crowd,” Mercedes Schlapp, CPAC host and organizer, told POLITICO. “Ken Paxton agreed to come, and he has a very high CPAC rating. We’ve invited Cornyn, and the invitation is still open for him to attend.”
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