Documents Show Real Reason Why the White House Wants to Break Up NCAR

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is integral to aviation safety, weather forecasting, agricultural planning, and flood risk assessment, significantly impacting public safety, economic growth, and national security. This vital research institution provides essential tools for daily decision-making.

On December 16, 2025, Russell Vought, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB), announced that NCAR would be dismantled. Following this, the National Science Foundation (NSF), NCAR’s sponsor, outlined plans to reorganize the center. As part of this effort, NSF also revealed plans to transfer NCAR’s supercomputer, Derecho, to an unspecified third party.

The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) has sought transparency regarding these changes. They have submitted a public comment and formally requested the NSF to release the cooperative agreement governing NCAR, as well as all public comments from the agency’s request-for-information process, and internal decision-making documents involving OMB. This reflects a growing concern within the scientific community that decisions affecting national research infrastructure are advancing without clear public explanation or scientific justification, potentially endangering crucial scientific work.

Documents released in an ongoing lawsuit by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), NCAR’s manager, against NSF and OMB, shed light on the situation. These documents indicate that the White House OMB instructed NSF to dismantle NCAR, targeting specific parts of its scientific portfolio for reduction or spin-off due to perceived political misalignment.

Insights from the Documents

The documentation provided by OMB and NSF offers significant insight into the rationale for proposed changes at NCAR. Included are versions of the cooperative agreement between UCAR and NSF, communications on the FY27 NSF Budget between OMB and NSF, and a NOAA document detailing the policy-aligned functions of NCAR activities. Some activities are suggested to be relocated to “better-aligned” university programs nationwide. The April 23 defense filings provide a comprehensive look at these materials.

Two key documents underscore the intended course of the NCAR restructuring.

November 19, 2025 OMB Draft Memo

A draft memo dated November 19, 2025, from OMB staff to the OMB director, outlines a plan to restructure NCAR nearly a month before Russell Vought’s public announcement on December 16, 2025.

The memo instructs NSF to “accelerate restructuring of NCAR through an RFI [public comment] process,” with reforms such as “spin off components of [NCAR]” including its supercomputer and two aircraft, and “rescope the research and modeling of NCAR to focus on weather rather than climate modeling.” The rationale is to “align NCAR’s mission more closely with Administration priorities.”

Stuart Levenbach, associate director for Agriculture, Commerce, Resources, and Science Programs at OMB, declared that the OMB director “considered the information in [the] memo, which ultimately led to the Director’s approval to pursue restructuring NCAR as part of the FY27 budget.”

December 17, 2025 Internal OMB and OMB/NSF Communications

Another document from December 17, 2025, a day after Vought’s announcement, contains internal OMB communications identifying NCAR research areas seen as misaligned with Administration priorities.

Under “What we’re taking action against” are areas like human-caused climate change and greenhouse gas emissions, climate variability, long-term fossil fuel-caused climate change, and atmospheric chemistry. These are targeted for reduction or redirection as they “inform regulations on emissions that the Administration does not support.”

Simultaneously, OMB lists “Things that NCAR does well that we are keeping,” such as its supercomputer and the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory, though they plan to transfer these to “a different management entity.”

The memo includes details on NCAR’s physical locations, proposing the closure of NCAR’s Mesa Lab, the transfer or relocation of its aircraft, and the University of Wyoming assuming management of the supercomputer.

In response, Brian Stone, acting director of the NSF, noted that “many” of the NCAR activities OMB suggested for alignment “already track with what we consider aligned.”

OMB’s Redefinition of NCAR’s Scientific Mission

Collectively, these documents clarify what science OMB considered appropriate for NCAR. They highlight OMB Director Russell Vought’s central role and the apparent decisions to restructure NCAR even before public input.

1. The proposed changes intentionally redefine NCAR’s scientific mission, with significant implications for public safety, national security, and economic prosperity. The concept of fragmenting NCAR or spinning off key components ignores the integrated nature of its capabilities. High-performance computing, observational assets, and research labs work as a unified system. Removing parts can weaken the entire structure.
2. The restructuring timeline is notably swift. An internal memo shows that within hours of Vought’s announcement, OMB and NSF were aligned on which NCAR activities were considered “aligned.” The plan aims for implementation in FY27, a rapid timeline for such restructuring, effectively nullifying the cooperative agreement valid through 2028.
3. The documents attempt to separate weather prediction from climate science, a scientifically untenable distinction. Weather prediction and climate understanding are interconnected, informed by different timescales. The NCAR Earth System Predictability Across Timescales Program, targeted by the OMB memo, focuses on the critical Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction (S2S) timescale, bridging weather and climate for forecasting extreme events and hazards.
4. The documents suggest a possible management transfer of the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory, not explicitly stated in NSF’s public comment request. While the Mauna Loa Observatory is operated by NOAA, its solar observations are managed by NCAR. The Solar observatory provides vital data on the sun’s atmosphere, essential for predicting and understanding sun-earth interactions to mitigate space weather hazards (e.g., geomagnetic storms).
5. OMB’s orchestrated effort becomes more apparent. Their advance planning before the December 2025 announcement, along with their analysis of NCAR activities, indicates the breakup initiative is driven by the White House’s OMB. It also shows NSF was directed by OMB to develop its Dear Colleague Letter (public comment period), suggesting the breakup of NCAR was not independently considered by the science agency.

Next Steps

The documents from the UCAR lawsuit clearly reveal OMB’s intent to dismantle NCAR rapidly. This is no longer speculative; OMB aims for the breakup to be executed in FY27.

For Congress, this necessitates oversight: demanding transparency on proposed changes, reviewing the cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation, and assessing whether restructuring could weaken capabilities crucial for weather forecasting, disaster preparedness, and national security. Congress must hold the Trump administration accountable for the potentially damaging changes it seeks to enforce.

For the public, vigilance and advocacy are crucial. NCAR’s work underpins daily forecasts, emergency planning, and risk management. Public comment processes, community involvement, and communication with elected officials are vital in shaping future actions. Please refer to our action alert to contact your senator and representative about the importance of NCAR.